OpenAI’s August 7 disclosure that Astra, its next major frontier model family previewed August 1 for solving ten long-standing math problems, reached the “Critical” cybersecurity threshold under its Preparedness Framework triggered additional safeguards, paused select reinforcement-learning workloads, and introduced the main source of timing uncertainty. Traders have therefore spread probability across the first three weeks of September, with the September 14–20 window edging ahead at 41.5% amid reports of ongoing isolated testing, enhanced monitoring, and private customer previews. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s rapid Fable releases and lingering questions about federal AI framework review keep later October and “not released by November 1” outcomes viable at 14–18%. No official date or model card has been issued, leaving resolution dependent on when OpenAI completes its internal security migration and chooses an announcement window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 14–20 42%
August 31–September 6 39%
September 7–13 38%
September 21–27 38%
NEW
NEW
Dec 6, 2026
August 31–September 6
39%
September 7–13
38%
September 14–20
42%
September 21–27
38%
September 28–October 4
17%
October 5–11
17%
October 12–18
16%
October 19–25
17%
October 26–November 1
18%
Not released by November 1
14%
September 14–20 42%
August 31–September 6 39%
September 7–13 38%
September 21–27 38%
NEW
NEW
Dec 6, 2026
August 31–September 6
$4 Vol.
39%
September 7–13
$0 Vol.
38%
September 14–20
$0 Vol.
42%
September 21–27
$0 Vol.
38%
September 28–October 4
$0 Vol.
17%
October 5–11
$0 Vol.
17%
October 12–18
$0 Vol.
16%
October 19–25
$0 Vol.
17%
October 26–November 1
$0 Vol.
18%
Not released by November 1
$0 Vol.
14%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s August 7 disclosure that Astra, its next major frontier model family previewed August 1 for solving ten long-standing math problems, reached the “Critical” cybersecurity threshold under its Preparedness Framework triggered additional safeguards, paused select reinforcement-learning workloads, and introduced the main source of timing uncertainty. Traders have therefore spread probability across the first three weeks of September, with the September 14–20 window edging ahead at 41.5% amid reports of ongoing isolated testing, enhanced monitoring, and private customer previews. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s rapid Fable releases and lingering questions about federal AI framework review keep later October and “not released by November 1” outcomes viable at 14–18%. No official date or model card has been issued, leaving resolution dependent on when OpenAI completes its internal security migration and chooses an announcement window.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Volume
$188End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s August 7 disclosure that Astra, its next major frontier model family previewed August 1 for solving ten long-standing math problems, reached the “Critical” cybersecurity threshold under its Preparedness Framework triggered additional safeguards, paused select reinforcement-learning workloads, and introduced the main source of timing uncertainty. Traders have therefore spread probability across the first three weeks of September, with the September 14–20 window edging ahead at 41.5% amid reports of ongoing isolated testing, enhanced monitoring, and private customer previews. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s rapid Fable releases and lingering questions about federal AI framework review keep later October and “not released by November 1” outcomes viable at 14–18%. No official date or model card has been issued, leaving resolution dependent on when OpenAI completes its internal security migration and chooses an announcement window.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$188End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s August 7 disclosure that Astra, its next major frontier model family previewed August 1 for solving ten long-standing math problems, reached the “Critical” cybersecurity threshold under its Preparedness Framework triggered additional safeguards, paused select reinforcement-learning workloads, and introduced the main source of timing uncertainty. Traders have therefore spread probability across the first three weeks of September, with the September 14–20 window edging ahead at 41.5% amid reports of ongoing isolated testing, enhanced monitoring, and private customer previews. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s rapid Fable releases and lingering questions about federal AI framework review keep later October and “not released by November 1” outcomes viable at 14–18%. No official date or model card has been issued, leaving resolution dependent on when OpenAI completes its internal security migration and chooses an announcement window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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