**Trader consensus in the "Who will be arrested before 2027?" multi-outcome market centers on former U.S. officials facing congressional oversight and related investigations into prior official conduct.** John Brennan and James Comey draw notable trading interest due to probes tied to intelligence matters, while Anthony Fauci's recent Senate testimony—where he invoked the Fifth Amendment repeatedly—has sustained attention around potential contempt or follow-on exposure. Mahmoud Khalil and other figures appear in connection with immigration enforcement actions and protest-related cases. Broader context includes active federal investigations, court rulings on detention, and legislative efforts that could influence timelines before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff. Most listed individuals trade at low single-digit to low-double-digit implied probabilities, reflecting the high procedural and evidentiary barriers to arrest of high-profile figures absent new indictments or major shifts in enforcement priorities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWho will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?
$405,750 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
10%
John Brennan
21%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
10%
Adam Schiff
3%
Barack Obama
2%
James Comey
9%
Mahmoud Khalil
20%
James Clapper
12%
Letitia James
10%
Hillary Clinton
3%
Bill Clinton
1%
Loretta Lynch
10%
Susan Rice
9%
Candace Owens
7%
Gavin Newsom
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
John Kerry
2%
Pam Bondi
2%
Tom Homan
6%
Kash Patel
2%
Brandon Johnson
13%
Lisa Cook
3%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Joe Biden
1%
$405,750 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
$160,418 Vol.
10%
John Brennan
$22,244 Vol.
21%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$23,157 Vol.
10%
Adam Schiff
$16,570 Vol.
3%
Barack Obama
$29,276 Vol.
2%
James Comey
$10,272 Vol.
9%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,328 Vol.
20%
James Clapper
$6,774 Vol.
12%
Letitia James
$3,047 Vol.
10%
Hillary Clinton
$25,978 Vol.
3%
Bill Clinton
$2,726 Vol.
1%
Loretta Lynch
$2,411 Vol.
10%
Susan Rice
$304 Vol.
9%
Candace Owens
$268 Vol.
7%
Gavin Newsom
$39,300 Vol.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1,936 Vol.
5%
John Kerry
$503 Vol.
2%
Pam Bondi
$2,179 Vol.
2%
Tom Homan
$41,056 Vol.
6%
Kash Patel
$598 Vol.
2%
Brandon Johnson
$3,284 Vol.
13%
Lisa Cook
$3,845 Vol.
3%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 Vol.
11%
Joe Biden
$7,481 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus in the "Who will be arrested before 2027?" multi-outcome market centers on former U.S. officials facing congressional oversight and related investigations into prior official conduct.** John Brennan and James Comey draw notable trading interest due to probes tied to intelligence matters, while Anthony Fauci's recent Senate testimony—where he invoked the Fifth Amendment repeatedly—has sustained attention around potential contempt or follow-on exposure. Mahmoud Khalil and other figures appear in connection with immigration enforcement actions and protest-related cases. Broader context includes active federal investigations, court rulings on detention, and legislative efforts that could influence timelines before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff. Most listed individuals trade at low single-digit to low-double-digit implied probabilities, reflecting the high procedural and evidentiary barriers to arrest of high-profile figures absent new indictments or major shifts in enforcement priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$405,750Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus in the "Who will be arrested before 2027?" multi-outcome market centers on former U.S. officials facing congressional oversight and related investigations into prior official conduct.** John Brennan and James Comey draw notable trading interest due to probes tied to intelligence matters, while Anthony Fauci's recent Senate testimony—where he invoked the Fifth Amendment repeatedly—has sustained attention around potential contempt or follow-on exposure. Mahmoud Khalil and other figures appear in connection with immigration enforcement actions and protest-related cases. Broader context includes active federal investigations, court rulings on detention, and legislative efforts that could influence timelines before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff. Most listed individuals trade at low single-digit to low-double-digit implied probabilities, reflecting the high procedural and evidentiary barriers to arrest of high-profile figures absent new indictments or major shifts in enforcement priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$405,750Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus in the "Who will be arrested before 2027?" multi-outcome market centers on former U.S. officials facing congressional oversight and related investigations into prior official conduct.** John Brennan and James Comey draw notable trading interest due to probes tied to intelligence matters, while Anthony Fauci's recent Senate testimony—where he invoked the Fifth Amendment repeatedly—has sustained attention around potential contempt or follow-on exposure. Mahmoud Khalil and other figures appear in connection with immigration enforcement actions and protest-related cases. Broader context includes active federal investigations, court rulings on detention, and legislative efforts that could influence timelines before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff. Most listed individuals trade at low single-digit to low-double-digit implied probabilities, reflecting the high procedural and evidentiary barriers to arrest of high-profile figures absent new indictments or major shifts in enforcement priorities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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