Iran’s Supreme Leader position underwent abrupt transition following Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during joint U.S.-Israeli strikes that also killed senior military figures. The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March amid wartime conditions and constitutional interim arrangements. Mojtaba has remained unseen publicly since, with officials attributing the absence to security risks from ongoing threats while claiming he retains final decision authority through written statements and private coordination. A collective body of executive, judicial, and IRGC leaders has handled day-to-day governance, and Iranian statements have emphasized his health and involvement. Trader assessments of further near-term change reflect the recency of this succession, persistent conflict dynamics, and uncertainty over the new leader’s effective control versus institutional continuity.