**Trader consensus on a 65.5% probability of impeachment before January 2029 centers on midterm outcomes and House control.** With Republicans holding a narrow majority, Democratic candidates are favored to regain the chamber in November 2026, after which party leaders are widely expected to advance articles of impeachment. Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has stated there is “no doubt” Democrats would impeach if they win the House, a view echoed by President Trump’s own warnings to GOP lawmakers that losing the midterms would trigger such action. Recent developments include Rep. Al Green’s August 24 introduction of H.Res. 1486, citing alleged abuse of power in immigration enforcement by ICE and CBP, though the measure remains stalled in the Republican-led Judiciary Committee. National polling shows a slim majority of Americans believe grounds exist for impeachment proceedings. These factors, combined with repeated Democratic resolutions since Trump’s return to office, underpin the current market pricing while Senate conviction thresholds remain a separate and steeper barrier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated66% chance
$97,504 Vol.
$97,504 Vol.
Jan 19, 2029
Earn 3.25%
66% chance
$97,504 Vol.
$97,504 Vol.
Jan 19, 2029
Earn 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.**Trader consensus on a 65.5% probability of impeachment before January 2029 centers on midterm outcomes and House control.** With Republicans holding a narrow majority, Democratic candidates are favored to regain the chamber in November 2026, after which party leaders are widely expected to advance articles of impeachment. Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has stated there is “no doubt” Democrats would impeach if they win the House, a view echoed by President Trump’s own warnings to GOP lawmakers that losing the midterms would trigger such action. Recent developments include Rep. Al Green’s August 24 introduction of H.Res. 1486, citing alleged abuse of power in immigration enforcement by ICE and CBP, though the measure remains stalled in the Republican-led Judiciary Committee. National polling shows a slim majority of Americans believe grounds exist for impeachment proceedings. These factors, combined with repeated Democratic resolutions since Trump’s return to office, underpin the current market pricing while Senate conviction thresholds remain a separate and steeper barrier.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$97,504End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.**Trader consensus on a 65.5% probability of impeachment before January 2029 centers on midterm outcomes and House control.** With Republicans holding a narrow majority, Democratic candidates are favored to regain the chamber in November 2026, after which party leaders are widely expected to advance articles of impeachment. Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has stated there is “no doubt” Democrats would impeach if they win the House, a view echoed by President Trump’s own warnings to GOP lawmakers that losing the midterms would trigger such action. Recent developments include Rep. Al Green’s August 24 introduction of H.Res. 1486, citing alleged abuse of power in immigration enforcement by ICE and CBP, though the measure remains stalled in the Republican-led Judiciary Committee. National polling shows a slim majority of Americans believe grounds exist for impeachment proceedings. These factors, combined with repeated Democratic resolutions since Trump’s return to office, underpin the current market pricing while Senate conviction thresholds remain a separate and steeper barrier.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$97,504End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on a 65.5% probability of impeachment before January 2029 centers on midterm outcomes and House control.** With Republicans holding a narrow majority, Democratic candidates are favored to regain the chamber in November 2026, after which party leaders are widely expected to advance articles of impeachment. Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has stated there is “no doubt” Democrats would impeach if they win the House, a view echoed by President Trump’s own warnings to GOP lawmakers that losing the midterms would trigger such action. Recent developments include Rep. Al Green’s August 24 introduction of H.Res. 1486, citing alleged abuse of power in immigration enforcement by ICE and CBP, though the measure remains stalled in the Republican-led Judiciary Committee. National polling shows a slim majority of Americans believe grounds exist for impeachment proceedings. These factors, combined with repeated Democratic resolutions since Trump’s return to office, underpin the current market pricing while Senate conviction thresholds remain a separate and steeper barrier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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