President Donald Trump has shown no public or credible private indications of planning to resign before 2027, with his schedule reflecting ongoing executive actions, policy meetings, and active campaigning for the 2026 midterms. Speculation from political opponents citing age, potential midterm setbacks, or foreign policy pressures has circulated but lacks supporting evidence from primary sources or administration statements. Traders assign a 96.8% probability to "No" based on this absence of catalysts and historical patterns of incumbents completing terms absent health or legal crises. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden health developments, major legislative reversals, or unforeseen personal decisions, though none appear imminent within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$23,487 Vol.
$23,487 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$23,487 Vol.
$23,487 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Donald Trump has shown no public or credible private indications of planning to resign before 2027, with his schedule reflecting ongoing executive actions, policy meetings, and active campaigning for the 2026 midterms. Speculation from political opponents citing age, potential midterm setbacks, or foreign policy pressures has circulated but lacks supporting evidence from primary sources or administration statements. Traders assign a 96.8% probability to "No" based on this absence of catalysts and historical patterns of incumbents completing terms absent health or legal crises. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden health developments, major legislative reversals, or unforeseen personal decisions, though none appear imminent within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
Volume
$23,487End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Donald Trump has shown no public or credible private indications of planning to resign before 2027, with his schedule reflecting ongoing executive actions, policy meetings, and active campaigning for the 2026 midterms. Speculation from political opponents citing age, potential midterm setbacks, or foreign policy pressures has circulated but lacks supporting evidence from primary sources or administration statements. Traders assign a 96.8% probability to "No" based on this absence of catalysts and historical patterns of incumbents completing terms absent health or legal crises. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden health developments, major legislative reversals, or unforeseen personal decisions, though none appear imminent within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$23,487End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Donald Trump has shown no public or credible private indications of planning to resign before 2027, with his schedule reflecting ongoing executive actions, policy meetings, and active campaigning for the 2026 midterms. Speculation from political opponents citing age, potential midterm setbacks, or foreign policy pressures has circulated but lacks supporting evidence from primary sources or administration statements. Traders assign a 96.8% probability to "No" based on this absence of catalysts and historical patterns of incumbents completing terms absent health or legal crises. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden health developments, major legislative reversals, or unforeseen personal decisions, though none appear imminent within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions