Recent polling from Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas shows a tight contest for Alagoas’s two Senate seats, with Arthur Lira (PP) holding a narrow combined-vote edge over Renan Calheiros (MDB) and Marina JHC (PSDB), all within margins of error amid roughly 19% undecided voters. Marina’s late entry into the Senate race after alliance shifts, paired with high rejection rates for established figures like Renan, has kept second-place probabilities fluid in trader assessments. The dual-vote system amplifies volatility, as voters select two distinct candidates, while earlier frontrunners such as Alfredo Gaspar withdrew. Late-campaign developments, including endorsements, turnout in key regions, or shifts in rejection trends, could separate the contenders before the October election.