Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding lead in the Massachusetts 4th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, his incumbency since 2021, and substantial fundraising advantage over Republican challenger Tom Stalcup. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, with models projecting margins exceeding 40 points based on historical voting patterns and district fundamentals. Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination in the September 1 primary with roughly 72 percent of the vote, while Stalcup advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural factors. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's partisan baseline before the November 3 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMA-04 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
MA-04 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
$47,249 Vol.
$47,249 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jake Auchincloss (D)
97%
Tom Stalcup (R)
1%
$47,249 Vol.
$47,249 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jake Auchincloss (D)
$23,504 Vol.
97%
Tom Stalcup (R)
$23,745 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding lead in the Massachusetts 4th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, his incumbency since 2021, and substantial fundraising advantage over Republican challenger Tom Stalcup. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, with models projecting margins exceeding 40 points based on historical voting patterns and district fundamentals. Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination in the September 1 primary with roughly 72 percent of the vote, while Stalcup advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural factors. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's partisan baseline before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$47,249Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding lead in the Massachusetts 4th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, his incumbency since 2021, and substantial fundraising advantage over Republican challenger Tom Stalcup. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, with models projecting margins exceeding 40 points based on historical voting patterns and district fundamentals. Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination in the September 1 primary with roughly 72 percent of the vote, while Stalcup advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural factors. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's partisan baseline before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,249Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding lead in the Massachusetts 4th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, his incumbency since 2021, and substantial fundraising advantage over Republican challenger Tom Stalcup. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, with models projecting margins exceeding 40 points based on historical voting patterns and district fundamentals. Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination in the September 1 primary with roughly 72 percent of the vote, while Stalcup advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural factors. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's partisan baseline before the November 3 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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