Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a strong position in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, with traders assigning him an 82.5% implied probability of victory over Democratic challenger Jake Johnson. The R+6 partisan lean of the district, Finstad’s decisive August primary win exceeding 90% of the vote, and his prior reelection margins have anchored Republican support. Johnson, a high school math teacher and first-time candidate, secured his nomination with over 80% in the Democratic primary and has matched the incumbent’s fundraising while securing a notable endorsement from former Republican governor Arne Carlson. Recent polling averages project a Finstad margin in the mid-single to low-double digits, consistent with the race’s Likely Republican rating from multiple forecasters.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMN-01 House Election Winner
MN-01 House Election Winner
$42,186 Vol.
$42,186 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Brad Finstad (R)
83%
Jake Johnson (D)
14%
$42,186 Vol.
$42,186 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Brad Finstad (R)
$15,932 Vol.
83%
Jake Johnson (D)
$26,254 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a strong position in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, with traders assigning him an 82.5% implied probability of victory over Democratic challenger Jake Johnson. The R+6 partisan lean of the district, Finstad’s decisive August primary win exceeding 90% of the vote, and his prior reelection margins have anchored Republican support. Johnson, a high school math teacher and first-time candidate, secured his nomination with over 80% in the Democratic primary and has matched the incumbent’s fundraising while securing a notable endorsement from former Republican governor Arne Carlson. Recent polling averages project a Finstad margin in the mid-single to low-double digits, consistent with the race’s Likely Republican rating from multiple forecasters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$42,186Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a strong position in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, with traders assigning him an 82.5% implied probability of victory over Democratic challenger Jake Johnson. The R+6 partisan lean of the district, Finstad’s decisive August primary win exceeding 90% of the vote, and his prior reelection margins have anchored Republican support. Johnson, a high school math teacher and first-time candidate, secured his nomination with over 80% in the Democratic primary and has matched the incumbent’s fundraising while securing a notable endorsement from former Republican governor Arne Carlson. Recent polling averages project a Finstad margin in the mid-single to low-double digits, consistent with the race’s Likely Republican rating from multiple forecasters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,186Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a strong position in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, with traders assigning him an 82.5% implied probability of victory over Democratic challenger Jake Johnson. The R+6 partisan lean of the district, Finstad’s decisive August primary win exceeding 90% of the vote, and his prior reelection margins have anchored Republican support. Johnson, a high school math teacher and first-time candidate, secured his nomination with over 80% in the Democratic primary and has matched the incumbent’s fundraising while securing a notable endorsement from former Republican governor Arne Carlson. Recent polling averages project a Finstad margin in the mid-single to low-double digits, consistent with the race’s Likely Republican rating from multiple forecasters.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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