The ongoing legal battle over Missouri’s congressional maps is the dominant factor shaping trader consensus in the MO-05 race. After Republicans enacted a mid-decade redistricting plan designed to favor the GOP and used it for the August 4 primaries—where state Sen. Rick Brattin won the Republican nomination—the Missouri Supreme Court ruled in early September that the new lines cannot apply in November without voter approval via referendum. Election officials are therefore proceeding under the 2022 boundaries, which keep the district centered on Democratic-leaning Kansas City and give incumbent Emanuel Cleaver a stronger structural position than the redrawn version. Brattin has publicly described the current map as practically unwinnable for Republicans. Remaining federal appeals and the November referendum add uncertainty, but the shift back to the prior district lines has narrowed Brattin’s perceived path and kept the implied probabilities relatively close.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMO-05 House Election Winner
MO-05 House Election Winner
$28,732 Vol.
$28,732 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Emanuel Cleaver (D)
59%
Rick Brattin (R)
40%
$28,732 Vol.
$28,732 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Emanuel Cleaver (D)
$11,527 Vol.
59%
Rick Brattin (R)
$17,205 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The ongoing legal battle over Missouri’s congressional maps is the dominant factor shaping trader consensus in the MO-05 race. After Republicans enacted a mid-decade redistricting plan designed to favor the GOP and used it for the August 4 primaries—where state Sen. Rick Brattin won the Republican nomination—the Missouri Supreme Court ruled in early September that the new lines cannot apply in November without voter approval via referendum. Election officials are therefore proceeding under the 2022 boundaries, which keep the district centered on Democratic-leaning Kansas City and give incumbent Emanuel Cleaver a stronger structural position than the redrawn version. Brattin has publicly described the current map as practically unwinnable for Republicans. Remaining federal appeals and the November referendum add uncertainty, but the shift back to the prior district lines has narrowed Brattin’s perceived path and kept the implied probabilities relatively close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$28,732Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The ongoing legal battle over Missouri’s congressional maps is the dominant factor shaping trader consensus in the MO-05 race. After Republicans enacted a mid-decade redistricting plan designed to favor the GOP and used it for the August 4 primaries—where state Sen. Rick Brattin won the Republican nomination—the Missouri Supreme Court ruled in early September that the new lines cannot apply in November without voter approval via referendum. Election officials are therefore proceeding under the 2022 boundaries, which keep the district centered on Democratic-leaning Kansas City and give incumbent Emanuel Cleaver a stronger structural position than the redrawn version. Brattin has publicly described the current map as practically unwinnable for Republicans. Remaining federal appeals and the November referendum add uncertainty, but the shift back to the prior district lines has narrowed Brattin’s perceived path and kept the implied probabilities relatively close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,732Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...The ongoing legal battle over Missouri’s congressional maps is the dominant factor shaping trader consensus in the MO-05 race. After Republicans enacted a mid-decade redistricting plan designed to favor the GOP and used it for the August 4 primaries—where state Sen. Rick Brattin won the Republican nomination—the Missouri Supreme Court ruled in early September that the new lines cannot apply in November without voter approval via referendum. Election officials are therefore proceeding under the 2022 boundaries, which keep the district centered on Democratic-leaning Kansas City and give incumbent Emanuel Cleaver a stronger structural position than the redrawn version. Brattin has publicly described the current map as practically unwinnable for Republicans. Remaining federal appeals and the November referendum add uncertainty, but the shift back to the prior district lines has narrowed Brattin’s perceived path and kept the implied probabilities relatively close.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti