Incumbent Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in the NY-20 race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook PVI and Tonko's repeated victories, including 61 percent in 2024. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, with no subsequent polling shifts or major developments altering the baseline. Tonko's substantial fundraising advantage and established record on issues such as energy policy and regional infrastructure contrast with Ralph Ambrosio's limited resources and profile as a Republican challenger emphasizing taxes and regulations. Trader consensus prices reflect these structural factors ahead of the November 3 general election. A late national political realignment or unforeseen candidate-specific event remains the primary route to narrowing the gap.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera NY-20
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera NY-20
$35,403 Vol.
$35,403 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Paul Tonko (D)
96%
Ralph Ambrosio (R)
4%
$35,403 Vol.
$35,403 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Paul Tonko (D)
$16,564 Vol.
96%
Ralph Ambrosio (R)
$18,839 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in the NY-20 race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook PVI and Tonko's repeated victories, including 61 percent in 2024. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, with no subsequent polling shifts or major developments altering the baseline. Tonko's substantial fundraising advantage and established record on issues such as energy policy and regional infrastructure contrast with Ralph Ambrosio's limited resources and profile as a Republican challenger emphasizing taxes and regulations. Trader consensus prices reflect these structural factors ahead of the November 3 general election. A late national political realignment or unforeseen candidate-specific event remains the primary route to narrowing the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$35,403Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in the NY-20 race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook PVI and Tonko's repeated victories, including 61 percent in 2024. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, with no subsequent polling shifts or major developments altering the baseline. Tonko's substantial fundraising advantage and established record on issues such as energy policy and regional infrastructure contrast with Ralph Ambrosio's limited resources and profile as a Republican challenger emphasizing taxes and regulations. Trader consensus prices reflect these structural factors ahead of the November 3 general election. A late national political realignment or unforeseen candidate-specific event remains the primary route to narrowing the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,403Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in the NY-20 race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook PVI and Tonko's repeated victories, including 61 percent in 2024. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, with no subsequent polling shifts or major developments altering the baseline. Tonko's substantial fundraising advantage and established record on issues such as energy policy and regional infrastructure contrast with Ralph Ambrosio's limited resources and profile as a Republican challenger emphasizing taxes and regulations. Trader consensus prices reflect these structural factors ahead of the November 3 general election. A late national political realignment or unforeseen candidate-specific event remains the primary route to narrowing the gap.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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