The Quebec general election on October 5, 2026, features a close popular vote race among francophone voters, where the Parti Québécois maintains a narrow lead in recent polling averages near 29% against the CAQ at 24-27%, with the PLQ, PCQ, and QS trailing further behind. Trader consensus favoring a PQ plurality or majority government reflects the party's consistent strength in francophone ridings under the first-past-the-post system, combined with a fragmented federalist vote split among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ that limits any single rival's path to the most seats. The CAQ has narrowed the gap since new leader Christine Fréchette took over earlier in 2026 and amid early campaign developments, including voter concerns over U.S. trade tensions, yet structural advantages continue to position the PQ as the frontrunner in seat projections from models like 338Canada.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日PQ 66%
CAQ 31%
PLQ 5%
PCQ <1%
$869,525 Vol.
$869,525 Vol.

PQ
66%

CAQ
31%

PLQ
5%

PCQ
<1%

PVQ
<1%

QS
<1%
PQ 66%
CAQ 31%
PLQ 5%
PCQ <1%
$869,525 Vol.
$869,525 Vol.

PQ
66%

CAQ
31%

PLQ
5%

PCQ
<1%

PVQ
<1%

QS
<1%
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
マーケット開始日: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
リゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...The Quebec general election on October 5, 2026, features a close popular vote race among francophone voters, where the Parti Québécois maintains a narrow lead in recent polling averages near 29% against the CAQ at 24-27%, with the PLQ, PCQ, and QS trailing further behind. Trader consensus favoring a PQ plurality or majority government reflects the party's consistent strength in francophone ridings under the first-past-the-post system, combined with a fragmented federalist vote split among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ that limits any single rival's path to the most seats. The CAQ has narrowed the gap since new leader Christine Fréchette took over earlier in 2026 and amid early campaign developments, including voter concerns over U.S. trade tensions, yet structural advantages continue to position the PQ as the frontrunner in seat projections from models like 338Canada.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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