The absence of any magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in California through late August 2026 underpins the 87% market-implied probability of “No.” USGS data show only minor events, including a recent 4.8 off Northern California and scattered clusters below magnitude 5, consistent with background seismicity on the San Andreas and related faults. Historical recurrence rates for M7+ events average several years apart, and with roughly four months remaining, the short-term likelihood stays low absent new strain-release signals. Elevated tectonic stress noted in peer-reviewed models raises long-term risk but does not alter near-term odds, as no foreshock patterns or model consensus currently point to an imminent large rupture.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日カリフォルニア州では、2026年にマグニチュード7.0以上の地震が発生しますか？
カリフォルニア州では、2026年にマグニチュード7.0以上の地震が発生しますか？
14% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
14% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. The absence of any magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in California through late August 2026 underpins the 87% market-implied probability of “No.” USGS data show only minor events, including a recent 4.8 off Northern California and scattered clusters below magnitude 5, consistent with background seismicity on the San Andreas and related faults. Historical recurrence rates for M7+ events average several years apart, and with roughly four months remaining, the short-term likelihood stays low absent new strain-release signals. Elevated tectonic stress noted in peer-reviewed models raises long-term risk but does not alter near-term odds, as no foreshock patterns or model consensus currently point to an imminent large rupture.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
音量
$5,699終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. The absence of any magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in California through late August 2026 underpins the 87% market-implied probability of “No.” USGS data show only minor events, including a recent 4.8 off Northern California and scattered clusters below magnitude 5, consistent with background seismicity on the San Andreas and related faults. Historical recurrence rates for M7+ events average several years apart, and with roughly four months remaining, the short-term likelihood stays low absent new strain-release signals. Elevated tectonic stress noted in peer-reviewed models raises long-term risk but does not alter near-term odds, as no foreshock patterns or model consensus currently point to an imminent large rupture.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
音量
$5,699終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The absence of any magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in California through late August 2026 underpins the 87% market-implied probability of “No.” USGS data show only minor events, including a recent 4.8 off Northern California and scattered clusters below magnitude 5, consistent with background seismicity on the San Andreas and related faults. Historical recurrence rates for M7+ events average several years apart, and with roughly four months remaining, the short-term likelihood stays low absent new strain-release signals. Elevated tectonic stress noted in peer-reviewed models raises long-term risk but does not alter near-term odds, as no foreshock patterns or model consensus currently point to an imminent large rupture.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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