The solidly Republican character of Alabama’s open Senate contest between nominee Barry Moore and Democrat Everett Wess, in a state where recent presidential margins exceeded 30 points, anchors trader expectations for moderate general-election turnout on November 3. Low participation in the May and June primaries and runoffs—statewide turnout fell to 10.7 percent in the runoff, with Republican ballots notably down from 2022—signals limited voter enthusiasm in a low-competition environment. With roughly 3.6–3.8 million registered voters and no high-profile statewide races driving mobilization, probabilities cluster tightly around 1.5–1.7 million total ballots. Late-cycle factors such as national economic conditions, early-voting patterns, or targeted get-out-the-vote efforts could still shift the final count within the favored range.