Trader sentiment for Federal Reserve rate decisions through December 2026 shows elevated uncertainty, with the pause-pause-pause path leading at 31.5% implied probability amid mixed economic signals. Recent inflation readings and labor market data continue to shape expectations for the September, November, and December FOMC meetings, as traders weigh whether cooling price pressures or resilient employment will keep the policy rate unchanged. Hike-inclusive scenarios totaling over 60% probability reflect concerns that sticky core inflation or stronger growth could prompt tightening, while the fragmented distribution highlights sensitivity to upcoming data releases and any shifts in Fed communications on the neutral rate. Market-implied odds embed real capital at risk, pricing probabilities rather than certainties around these outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Pause–Pause–Pause 33%
Hike–Pause–Pause 19%
Hike–Hike–Pause 15%
Hike–Pause–Hike 10%
$13,920 Wol.
$13,920 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
10%
Hike–Pause–Pause
19%
Hike–Hike–Hike
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
15%
Pause–Pause–Hike
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause
33%
Pause–Hike–Hike
4%
Pause–Hike–Pause
7%
Other
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 33%
Hike–Pause–Pause 19%
Hike–Hike–Pause 15%
Hike–Pause–Hike 10%
$13,920 Wol.
$13,920 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 Wol.
10%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$505 Wol.
19%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 Wol.
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$429 Wol.
15%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$557 Wol.
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$11,067 Wol.
33%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$242 Wol.
4%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$341 Wol.
7%
Other
$249 Wol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment for Federal Reserve rate decisions through December 2026 shows elevated uncertainty, with the pause-pause-pause path leading at 31.5% implied probability amid mixed economic signals. Recent inflation readings and labor market data continue to shape expectations for the September, November, and December FOMC meetings, as traders weigh whether cooling price pressures or resilient employment will keep the policy rate unchanged. Hike-inclusive scenarios totaling over 60% probability reflect concerns that sticky core inflation or stronger growth could prompt tightening, while the fragmented distribution highlights sensitivity to upcoming data releases and any shifts in Fed communications on the neutral rate. Market-implied odds embed real capital at risk, pricing probabilities rather than certainties around these outcomes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$13,920Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment for Federal Reserve rate decisions through December 2026 shows elevated uncertainty, with the pause-pause-pause path leading at 31.5% implied probability amid mixed economic signals. Recent inflation readings and labor market data continue to shape expectations for the September, November, and December FOMC meetings, as traders weigh whether cooling price pressures or resilient employment will keep the policy rate unchanged. Hike-inclusive scenarios totaling over 60% probability reflect concerns that sticky core inflation or stronger growth could prompt tightening, while the fragmented distribution highlights sensitivity to upcoming data releases and any shifts in Fed communications on the neutral rate. Market-implied odds embed real capital at risk, pricing probabilities rather than certainties around these outcomes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$13,920Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Federal Reserve rate decisions through December 2026 shows elevated uncertainty, with the pause-pause-pause path leading at 31.5% implied probability amid mixed economic signals. Recent inflation readings and labor market data continue to shape expectations for the September, November, and December FOMC meetings, as traders weigh whether cooling price pressures or resilient employment will keep the policy rate unchanged. Hike-inclusive scenarios totaling over 60% probability reflect concerns that sticky core inflation or stronger growth could prompt tightening, while the fragmented distribution highlights sensitivity to upcoming data releases and any shifts in Fed communications on the neutral rate. Market-implied odds embed real capital at risk, pricing probabilities rather than certainties around these outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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