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icon for Eleição para o Senado de Illinois: comparecimento às urnas
Política·Comparecimento

Eleição para o Senado de Illinois: comparecimento às urnas

icon for Eleição para o Senado de Illinois: comparecimento às urnas
Política·Comparecimento

Eleição para o Senado de Illinois: comparecimento às urnas

4.25M-4.5M 38%

4M-4.25M 35%

4.5M-4.75M 15%

3.75M-4M 11%

Polymarket
NOVO

4.25M-4.5M 38%

4M-4.25M 35%

4.5M-4.75M 15%

3.75M-4M 11%

Polymarket
NOVO

<3.25M

$632 Vol.

3%

3.25M-3.5M

$1,561 Vol.

1%

3.5M-3.75M

$505 Vol.

4%

3.75M-4M

$422 Vol.

11%

4M-4.25M

$1,969 Vol.

35%

4.25M-4.5M

$1,733 Vol.

38%

4.5M-4.75M

$1,635 Vol.

15%

4.75M+

$880 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Democratic primary participation in Illinois surged nearly 50% above 2022 levels, reaching about 1.28 million ballots amid competitive Senate and House contests, which traders view as a signal of stronger base mobilization heading into the November general election. This enthusiasm, linked to national political dynamics, contrasts with notably lower Republican primary turnout and aligns with the market's clustering around 4M-4.5M total votes. Historical midterm patterns, including 4.14 million ballots cast in 2022, provide the baseline, while Republican efforts to lift downstate participation and Democratic focus on suburban and urban engagement introduce variability. The close pricing between the two leading brackets reflects uncertainty over whether these factors will push overall turnout modestly above or below recent midterms, with early voting access and registration trends as additional variables that could shift the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,337
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Democratic primary participation in Illinois surged nearly 50% above 2022 levels, reaching about 1.28 million ballots amid competitive Senate and House contests, which traders view as a signal of stronger base mobilization heading into the November general election. This enthusiasm, linked to national political dynamics, contrasts with notably lower Republican primary turnout and aligns with the market's clustering around 4M-4.5M total votes. Historical midterm patterns, including 4.14 million ballots cast in 2022, provide the baseline, while Republican efforts to lift downstate participation and Democratic focus on suburban and urban engagement introduce variability. The close pricing between the two leading brackets reflects uncertainty over whether these factors will push overall turnout modestly above or below recent midterms, with early voting access and registration trends as additional variables that could shift the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,337
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição para o Senado de Illinois: comparecimento às urnas" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.25M-4.5M" at 38%, followed by "4M-4.25M" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eleição para o Senado de Illinois: comparecimento às urnas" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eleição para o Senado de Illinois: comparecimento às urnas," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição para o Senado de Illinois: comparecimento às urnas" is "4.25M-4.5M" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4M-4.25M" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição para o Senado de Illinois: comparecimento às urnas" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.