Renato Casagrande maintains a dominant position in Espírito Santo's Senate race due to his high name recognition after serving as governor until resigning in April 2026 to pursue one of the two seats up for election on October 4. Recent polls, including those from Paraná Pesquisas, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data conducted in late August, consistently show him far ahead in consolidated voting intentions for the two vacancies, often exceeding 28% while other candidates remain in single digits or low teens amid technical ties for second place. His PSB-led coalition and prior electoral successes contribute to this trader consensus reflected in the 97.3% implied probability for first place. Factors that could narrow the gap include shifts in undecided voters, strong showings by figures such as Sergio Meneguelli or Rose de Freitas in remaining campaign events, or changes in turnout dynamics before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРенато Казагранде 97.3%
Родни Миранда <1%
Фабиано Контарату <1%
Каллегари <1%
$11,316 Объем
$11,316 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Ренато Казагранде
97%
Родни Миранда
1%
Фабиано Контарату
1%
Каллегари
1%
Леонардо Монжаррим
1%
Магуинья Мальта
<1%
Профессор Фабиан
<1%
Маркос ду Вал
<1%
Розе де Фрейтас
<1%
Серхио Менегуэлли
<1%
Эваир де Мело
<1%
Ренато Казагранде 97.3%
Родни Миранда <1%
Фабиано Контарату <1%
Каллегари <1%
$11,316 Объем
$11,316 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Ренато Казагранде
$5,661 Объем
97%
Родни Миранда
$576 Объем
1%
Фабиано Контарату
$603 Объем
1%
Каллегари
$670 Объем
1%
Леонардо Монжаррим
$580 Объем
1%
Магуинья Мальта
$594 Объем
<1%
Профессор Фабиан
$299 Объем
<1%
Маркос ду Вал
$590 Объем
<1%
Розе де Фрейтас
$559 Объем
<1%
Серхио Менегуэлли
$602 Объем
<1%
Эваир де Мело
$582 Объем
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Renato Casagrande maintains a dominant position in Espírito Santo's Senate race due to his high name recognition after serving as governor until resigning in April 2026 to pursue one of the two seats up for election on October 4. Recent polls, including those from Paraná Pesquisas, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data conducted in late August, consistently show him far ahead in consolidated voting intentions for the two vacancies, often exceeding 28% while other candidates remain in single digits or low teens amid technical ties for second place. His PSB-led coalition and prior electoral successes contribute to this trader consensus reflected in the 97.3% implied probability for first place. Factors that could narrow the gap include shifts in undecided voters, strong showings by figures such as Sergio Meneguelli or Rose de Freitas in remaining campaign events, or changes in turnout dynamics before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Объем
$11,316Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Renato Casagrande maintains a dominant position in Espírito Santo's Senate race due to his high name recognition after serving as governor until resigning in April 2026 to pursue one of the two seats up for election on October 4. Recent polls, including those from Paraná Pesquisas, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data conducted in late August, consistently show him far ahead in consolidated voting intentions for the two vacancies, often exceeding 28% while other candidates remain in single digits or low teens amid technical ties for second place. His PSB-led coalition and prior electoral successes contribute to this trader consensus reflected in the 97.3% implied probability for first place. Factors that could narrow the gap include shifts in undecided voters, strong showings by figures such as Sergio Meneguelli or Rose de Freitas in remaining campaign events, or changes in turnout dynamics before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$11,316Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Renato Casagrande maintains a dominant position in Espírito Santo's Senate race due to his high name recognition after serving as governor until resigning in April 2026 to pursue one of the two seats up for election on October 4. Recent polls, including those from Paraná Pesquisas, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data conducted in late August, consistently show him far ahead in consolidated voting intentions for the two vacancies, often exceeding 28% while other candidates remain in single digits or low teens amid technical ties for second place. His PSB-led coalition and prior electoral successes contribute to this trader consensus reflected in the 97.3% implied probability for first place. Factors that could narrow the gap include shifts in undecided voters, strong showings by figures such as Sergio Meneguelli or Rose de Freitas in remaining campaign events, or changes in turnout dynamics before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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