Sam Liccardo’s incumbency in California’s 16th Congressional District, combined with his 75.6 percent share of the June 2026 top-two primary vote, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring his general election victory on November 3. The district’s partisan composition in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties, reflected in consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, further reinforces this positioning ahead of the matchup against Republican Peter Soule. Limited Republican primary momentum and the absence of major recent shifts in voter registration or polling keep the implied probability near 98 percent. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, candidate withdrawal, or significant national realignment could still narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts show limited precedent for such reversals.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-16 House Election Winner
CA-16 House Election Winner
$107,100 ปริมาณ
$107,100 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Sam Liccardo (D)
98%
Peter Soulé (R)
2%
$107,100 ปริมาณ
$107,100 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Sam Liccardo (D)
$52,942 ปริมาณ
98%
Peter Soulé (R)
$54,158 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo’s incumbency in California’s 16th Congressional District, combined with his 75.6 percent share of the June 2026 top-two primary vote, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring his general election victory on November 3. The district’s partisan composition in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties, reflected in consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, further reinforces this positioning ahead of the matchup against Republican Peter Soule. Limited Republican primary momentum and the absence of major recent shifts in voter registration or polling keep the implied probability near 98 percent. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, candidate withdrawal, or significant national realignment could still narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts show limited precedent for such reversals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$107,100วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo’s incumbency in California’s 16th Congressional District, combined with his 75.6 percent share of the June 2026 top-two primary vote, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring his general election victory on November 3. The district’s partisan composition in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties, reflected in consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, further reinforces this positioning ahead of the matchup against Republican Peter Soule. Limited Republican primary momentum and the absence of major recent shifts in voter registration or polling keep the implied probability near 98 percent. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, candidate withdrawal, or significant national realignment could still narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts show limited precedent for such reversals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$107,100วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Sam Liccardo’s incumbency in California’s 16th Congressional District, combined with his 75.6 percent share of the June 2026 top-two primary vote, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring his general election victory on November 3. The district’s partisan composition in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties, reflected in consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, further reinforces this positioning ahead of the matchup against Republican Peter Soule. Limited Republican primary momentum and the absence of major recent shifts in voter registration or polling keep the implied probability near 98 percent. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, candidate withdrawal, or significant national realignment could still narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts show limited precedent for such reversals.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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