NATO allies reaffirmed their "ironclad" commitment to Article 5 at the July 2026 Ankara summit, even amid U.S. President Trump's criticisms of defense spending and conditional rhetoric on collective defense. Russia continues hybrid probes against members, including drone incidents such as the August 2026 Leipzig airport event and airspace violations, alongside U.S. intelligence assessments warning of possible limited Russian tests on Baltic or Polish territory as early as fall 2026. No direct armed attack meeting the treaty threshold has occurred, however, and European allies have accelerated spending and capabilities while the Ukraine conflict remains contained outside NATO borders. These factors sustain trader consensus against invocation before 2027.