The Democratic nominee holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district due to its consistent partisan lean, reflected in a D+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index and strong Democratic registration advantage. Incumbent Salud Carbajal advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary and faces Republican Bob Smith in the November general election, with all major forecasters rating the seat as solid or safe Democratic. The district's voting patterns in recent presidential and House contests reinforce this baseline, limiting opportunities for Republican gains absent extraordinary circumstances. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpected national political surge, a significant scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually low Democratic turnout in this Central Coast area.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-24 House Election Winner
CA-24 House Election Winner
$50,806 Обс.
$50,806 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
1%
$50,806 Обс.
$50,806 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$32,466 Обс.
98%
Republican Party
$18,339 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district due to its consistent partisan lean, reflected in a D+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index and strong Democratic registration advantage. Incumbent Salud Carbajal advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary and faces Republican Bob Smith in the November general election, with all major forecasters rating the seat as solid or safe Democratic. The district's voting patterns in recent presidential and House contests reinforce this baseline, limiting opportunities for Republican gains absent extraordinary circumstances. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpected national political surge, a significant scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually low Democratic turnout in this Central Coast area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Обсяг
$50,806Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district due to its consistent partisan lean, reflected in a D+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index and strong Democratic registration advantage. Incumbent Salud Carbajal advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary and faces Republican Bob Smith in the November general election, with all major forecasters rating the seat as solid or safe Democratic. The district's voting patterns in recent presidential and House contests reinforce this baseline, limiting opportunities for Republican gains absent extraordinary circumstances. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpected national political surge, a significant scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually low Democratic turnout in this Central Coast area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$50,806Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic nominee holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district due to its consistent partisan lean, reflected in a D+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index and strong Democratic registration advantage. Incumbent Salud Carbajal advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary and faces Republican Bob Smith in the November general election, with all major forecasters rating the seat as solid or safe Democratic. The district's voting patterns in recent presidential and House contests reinforce this baseline, limiting opportunities for Republican gains absent extraordinary circumstances. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpected national political surge, a significant scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually low Democratic turnout in this Central Coast area.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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