Recent forecasts from models including GFS, ECMWF, and the South African Weather Service indicate Cape Town’s September 1 overnight minimum will likely fall between 8–11 °C, consistent with the tightly bunched market-implied odds. A strengthening high-pressure ridge and clear skies favor strong radiational cooling under light southerly winds, allowing surface temperatures to drop efficiently once insolation ceases. Dew points near 7–9 °C limit further cooling, while subtle differences in low-level moisture, wind speed, and urban heat-island effects create the narrow spread among 8 °C, 9 °C, and 10 °C outcomes. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final guidance before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月1日开普敦最低温度？
9月1日开普敦最低温度？
14°C or higher 47%
9°C 32%
8°C 29%
10°C 28%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
4°C or below
1%
5°C
4%
6°C
1%
7°C
26%
8°C
29%
9°C
32%
10°C
28%
11°C
25%
12°C
7%
13°C
6%
14°C or higher
47%
14°C or higher 47%
9°C 32%
8°C 29%
10°C 28%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
4°C or below
$190 交易量
1%
5°C
$20 交易量
4%
6°C
$78 交易量
1%
7°C
$0 交易量
26%
8°C
$0 交易量
29%
9°C
$0 交易量
32%
10°C
$0 交易量
28%
11°C
$0 交易量
25%
12°C
$145 交易量
7%
13°C
$270 交易量
6%
14°C or higher
$10 交易量
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS, ECMWF, and the South African Weather Service indicate Cape Town’s September 1 overnight minimum will likely fall between 8–11 °C, consistent with the tightly bunched market-implied odds. A strengthening high-pressure ridge and clear skies favor strong radiational cooling under light southerly winds, allowing surface temperatures to drop efficiently once insolation ceases. Dew points near 7–9 °C limit further cooling, while subtle differences in low-level moisture, wind speed, and urban heat-island effects create the narrow spread among 8 °C, 9 °C, and 10 °C outcomes. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final guidance before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$713结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS, ECMWF, and the South African Weather Service indicate Cape Town’s September 1 overnight minimum will likely fall between 8–11 °C, consistent with the tightly bunched market-implied odds. A strengthening high-pressure ridge and clear skies favor strong radiational cooling under light southerly winds, allowing surface temperatures to drop efficiently once insolation ceases. Dew points near 7–9 °C limit further cooling, while subtle differences in low-level moisture, wind speed, and urban heat-island effects create the narrow spread among 8 °C, 9 °C, and 10 °C outcomes. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final guidance before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$713结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ETRecent forecasts from models including GFS, ECMWF, and the South African Weather Service indicate Cape Town’s September 1 overnight minimum will likely fall between 8–11 °C, consistent with the tightly bunched market-implied odds. A strengthening high-pressure ridge and clear skies favor strong radiational cooling under light southerly winds, allowing surface temperatures to drop efficiently once insolation ceases. Dew points near 7–9 °C limit further cooling, while subtle differences in low-level moisture, wind speed, and urban heat-island effects create the narrow spread among 8 °C, 9 °C, and 10 °C outcomes. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final guidance before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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