JHC leads the Alagoas governor race in trader consensus at 61.5% implied probability, ahead of Renan Filho at 39%, with minor candidates Lenilda Luna and Márcio Jambo near zero. Recent polling from late August 2026 shows a tight contest, with JHC at 47.2% and Renan Filho at 41.3% in one survey and nearly even in another, reflecting shifts from earlier JHC advantages. Key drivers include JHC’s record as two-term Maceió mayor stepping down to run on the PSDB ticket, contrasted with Renan Filho’s MDB candidacy backed by his father’s political network and his prior governorship. Party conventions in early August formalized the main slates, while low support for others underscores the bipolar dynamic ahead of the October first round. Traders price the frontrunner status based on these polling trends and structural factors in the state’s electoral landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJHC 63%
Renan Filho 39%
Lenilda Luna <1%
Márcio Jambo <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
JHC
63%
Renan Filho
39%
Lenilda Luna
<1%
Márcio Jambo
<1%
JHC 63%
Renan Filho 39%
Lenilda Luna <1%
Márcio Jambo <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
JHC
$2,211 Vol.
63%
Renan Filho
$2,956 Vol.
39%
Lenilda Luna
$512 Vol.
<1%
Márcio Jambo
$492 Vol.
<1%
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).JHC leads the Alagoas governor race in trader consensus at 61.5% implied probability, ahead of Renan Filho at 39%, with minor candidates Lenilda Luna and Márcio Jambo near zero. Recent polling from late August 2026 shows a tight contest, with JHC at 47.2% and Renan Filho at 41.3% in one survey and nearly even in another, reflecting shifts from earlier JHC advantages. Key drivers include JHC’s record as two-term Maceió mayor stepping down to run on the PSDB ticket, contrasted with Renan Filho’s MDB candidacy backed by his father’s political network and his prior governorship. Party conventions in early August formalized the main slates, while low support for others underscores the bipolar dynamic ahead of the October first round. Traders price the frontrunner status based on these polling trends and structural factors in the state’s electoral landscape.
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:27 AM ET
Volume
$6,170End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).JHC leads the Alagoas governor race in trader consensus at 61.5% implied probability, ahead of Renan Filho at 39%, with minor candidates Lenilda Luna and Márcio Jambo near zero. Recent polling from late August 2026 shows a tight contest, with JHC at 47.2% and Renan Filho at 41.3% in one survey and nearly even in another, reflecting shifts from earlier JHC advantages. Key drivers include JHC’s record as two-term Maceió mayor stepping down to run on the PSDB ticket, contrasted with Renan Filho’s MDB candidacy backed by his father’s political network and his prior governorship. Party conventions in early August formalized the main slates, while low support for others underscores the bipolar dynamic ahead of the October first round. Traders price the frontrunner status based on these polling trends and structural factors in the state’s electoral landscape.
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$6,170End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...JHC leads the Alagoas governor race in trader consensus at 61.5% implied probability, ahead of Renan Filho at 39%, with minor candidates Lenilda Luna and Márcio Jambo near zero. Recent polling from late August 2026 shows a tight contest, with JHC at 47.2% and Renan Filho at 41.3% in one survey and nearly even in another, reflecting shifts from earlier JHC advantages. Key drivers include JHC’s record as two-term Maceió mayor stepping down to run on the PSDB ticket, contrasted with Renan Filho’s MDB candidacy backed by his father’s political network and his prior governorship. Party conventions in early August formalized the main slates, while low support for others underscores the bipolar dynamic ahead of the October first round. Traders price the frontrunner status based on these polling trends and structural factors in the state’s electoral landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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