Yassamin Ansari’s position as the heavy favorite in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district reflects the seat’s strong Democratic lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+22 and her 70.9% victory in 2024. As the unopposed Democratic nominee following the July 2026 primary, the incumbent has raised over $1.4 million and maintains high visibility through constituent services and oversight activity, including a recent unannounced inspection of a Phoenix ICE facility. Republican opposition remains limited to a write-in candidate, producing the current trader consensus. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A late scandal, health development, or sharp national political shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-03 House Election Winner
AZ-03 House Election Winner
$52,732 Vol.
$52,732 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Yassamin Ansari (D)
98%
Republican Party
<1%
$52,732 Vol.
$52,732 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Yassamin Ansari (D)
$32,813 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$19,919 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Yassamin Ansari’s position as the heavy favorite in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district reflects the seat’s strong Democratic lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+22 and her 70.9% victory in 2024. As the unopposed Democratic nominee following the July 2026 primary, the incumbent has raised over $1.4 million and maintains high visibility through constituent services and oversight activity, including a recent unannounced inspection of a Phoenix ICE facility. Republican opposition remains limited to a write-in candidate, producing the current trader consensus. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A late scandal, health development, or sharp national political shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$52,732End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Yassamin Ansari’s position as the heavy favorite in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district reflects the seat’s strong Democratic lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+22 and her 70.9% victory in 2024. As the unopposed Democratic nominee following the July 2026 primary, the incumbent has raised over $1.4 million and maintains high visibility through constituent services and oversight activity, including a recent unannounced inspection of a Phoenix ICE facility. Republican opposition remains limited to a write-in candidate, producing the current trader consensus. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A late scandal, health development, or sharp national political shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$52,732End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Yassamin Ansari’s position as the heavy favorite in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district reflects the seat’s strong Democratic lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+22 and her 70.9% victory in 2024. As the unopposed Democratic nominee following the July 2026 primary, the incumbent has raised over $1.4 million and maintains high visibility through constituent services and oversight activity, including a recent unannounced inspection of a Phoenix ICE facility. Republican opposition remains limited to a write-in candidate, producing the current trader consensus. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A late scandal, health development, or sharp national political shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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