California's 11th congressional district, encompassing San Francisco, features a heavily Democratic electorate that delivered 81 percent support for the prior incumbent in 2024. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic state Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan to the November general election, with Republican candidates receiving minimal support. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on historical margins, fundraising patterns, and voter registration data. The near-certain Democratic outcome reflects the district's structural lean and absence of viable opposition. Late developments such as major scandals involving either nominee, significant health events, or unusually low turnout could theoretically shift results, though such factors have rarely altered outcomes in comparable safe seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-11 House Election Winner
CA-11 House Election Winner
$21,768 Vol.
$21,768 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
1%
$21,768 Vol.
$21,768 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,980 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$6,788 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district, encompassing San Francisco, features a heavily Democratic electorate that delivered 81 percent support for the prior incumbent in 2024. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic state Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan to the November general election, with Republican candidates receiving minimal support. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on historical margins, fundraising patterns, and voter registration data. The near-certain Democratic outcome reflects the district's structural lean and absence of viable opposition. Late developments such as major scandals involving either nominee, significant health events, or unusually low turnout could theoretically shift results, though such factors have rarely altered outcomes in comparable safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$21,768End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district, encompassing San Francisco, features a heavily Democratic electorate that delivered 81 percent support for the prior incumbent in 2024. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic state Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan to the November general election, with Republican candidates receiving minimal support. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on historical margins, fundraising patterns, and voter registration data. The near-certain Democratic outcome reflects the district's structural lean and absence of viable opposition. Late developments such as major scandals involving either nominee, significant health events, or unusually low turnout could theoretically shift results, though such factors have rarely altered outcomes in comparable safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,768End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 11th congressional district, encompassing San Francisco, features a heavily Democratic electorate that delivered 81 percent support for the prior incumbent in 2024. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic state Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan to the November general election, with Republican candidates receiving minimal support. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on historical margins, fundraising patterns, and voter registration data. The near-certain Democratic outcome reflects the district's structural lean and absence of viable opposition. Late developments such as major scandals involving either nominee, significant health events, or unusually low turnout could theoretically shift results, though such factors have rarely altered outcomes in comparable safe seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions