Incumbent Democrat Dave Min holds a commanding lead in California's 47th congressional district, a coastal Orange County seat that shifted toward Democrats following recent redistricting and supported Kamala Harris by double digits in 2024. Min advanced easily through the June 2026 top-two primary with about 45 percent of the vote and benefits from incumbency, substantial fundraising, and endorsements in a district where Democrats hold a registration edge. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent Democratic probability aligns with these structural advantages, though an unexpected national Republican wave, major scandal involving the incumbent, health developments, or unusually low Democratic turnout could still alter the November outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-47 House Election Winner
CA-47 House Election Winner
$14,137 Vol.
$14,137 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$14,137 Vol.
$14,137 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,261 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$10,876 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min holds a commanding lead in California's 47th congressional district, a coastal Orange County seat that shifted toward Democrats following recent redistricting and supported Kamala Harris by double digits in 2024. Min advanced easily through the June 2026 top-two primary with about 45 percent of the vote and benefits from incumbency, substantial fundraising, and endorsements in a district where Democrats hold a registration edge. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent Democratic probability aligns with these structural advantages, though an unexpected national Republican wave, major scandal involving the incumbent, health developments, or unusually low Democratic turnout could still alter the November outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$14,137End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min holds a commanding lead in California's 47th congressional district, a coastal Orange County seat that shifted toward Democrats following recent redistricting and supported Kamala Harris by double digits in 2024. Min advanced easily through the June 2026 top-two primary with about 45 percent of the vote and benefits from incumbency, substantial fundraising, and endorsements in a district where Democrats hold a registration edge. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent Democratic probability aligns with these structural advantages, though an unexpected national Republican wave, major scandal involving the incumbent, health developments, or unusually low Democratic turnout could still alter the November outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,137End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Dave Min holds a commanding lead in California's 47th congressional district, a coastal Orange County seat that shifted toward Democrats following recent redistricting and supported Kamala Harris by double digits in 2024. Min advanced easily through the June 2026 top-two primary with about 45 percent of the vote and benefits from incumbency, substantial fundraising, and endorsements in a district where Democrats hold a registration edge. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent Democratic probability aligns with these structural advantages, though an unexpected national Republican wave, major scandal involving the incumbent, health developments, or unusually low Democratic turnout could still alter the November outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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