Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California’s 46th congressional district with roughly 52 percent of the vote, facing Republican David Pan in the November general election. The district’s D+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin trader expectations of a strong hold. Correa’s established local record, including prior service in the state legislature and county government, combined with a substantial fundraising edge, has reinforced his position ahead of the general election. Pan, a UC Irvine professor, secured the Republican nomination but trails significantly in resources and name recognition. All major nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen national political wave, major scandal, or sharp decline in Democratic turnout in this Orange County-based district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-46 House Election Winner
CA-46 House Election Winner
$24,224 Vol.
$24,224 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$24,224 Vol.
$24,224 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$4,687 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$19,536 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California’s 46th congressional district with roughly 52 percent of the vote, facing Republican David Pan in the November general election. The district’s D+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin trader expectations of a strong hold. Correa’s established local record, including prior service in the state legislature and county government, combined with a substantial fundraising edge, has reinforced his position ahead of the general election. Pan, a UC Irvine professor, secured the Republican nomination but trails significantly in resources and name recognition. All major nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen national political wave, major scandal, or sharp decline in Democratic turnout in this Orange County-based district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$24,224End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California’s 46th congressional district with roughly 52 percent of the vote, facing Republican David Pan in the November general election. The district’s D+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin trader expectations of a strong hold. Correa’s established local record, including prior service in the state legislature and county government, combined with a substantial fundraising edge, has reinforced his position ahead of the general election. Pan, a UC Irvine professor, secured the Republican nomination but trails significantly in resources and name recognition. All major nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen national political wave, major scandal, or sharp decline in Democratic turnout in this Orange County-based district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,224End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California’s 46th congressional district with roughly 52 percent of the vote, facing Republican David Pan in the November general election. The district’s D+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin trader expectations of a strong hold. Correa’s established local record, including prior service in the state legislature and county government, combined with a substantial fundraising edge, has reinforced his position ahead of the general election. Pan, a UC Irvine professor, secured the Republican nomination but trails significantly in resources and name recognition. All major nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen national political wave, major scandal, or sharp decline in Democratic turnout in this Orange County-based district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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