Recent August 2026 data, showing core CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month against a 0.2% consensus, has anchored Polymarket-implied odds most heavily around 2.3–2.5% for the September release. Traders cite Cleveland Fed nowcasts near 2.39% and ongoing moderation in shelter costs alongside softer goods prices, tempered by firm core services and supercore readings near 3.1%. Elevated headline pressures from energy and gasoline, combined with steady labor-market indicators, reinforce expectations for limited further disinflation before the October 14 print. Market-implied probabilities reflect this narrow range as the base case, with limited scope for sharp deviations absent major revisions or new supply shocks ahead of the next FOMC meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.4% 42%
2.5% 23%
2.3% 22%
2.2% 7%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
≤2.0%
5%
2.1%
5%
2.2%
7%
2.3%
22%
2.4%
42%
2.5%
23%
2.6%
7%
2.7%
5%
2.8%
4%
≥2.9%
4%
2.4% 42%
2.5% 23%
2.3% 22%
2.2% 7%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
≤2.0%
$142 Vol.
5%
2.1%
$142 Vol.
5%
2.2%
$162 Vol.
7%
2.3%
$453 Vol.
22%
2.4%
$1,344 Vol.
42%
2.5%
$285 Vol.
23%
2.6%
$282 Vol.
7%
2.7%
$182 Vol.
5%
2.8%
$142 Vol.
4%
≥2.9%
$349 Vol.
4%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August 2026 data, showing core CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month against a 0.2% consensus, has anchored Polymarket-implied odds most heavily around 2.3–2.5% for the September release. Traders cite Cleveland Fed nowcasts near 2.39% and ongoing moderation in shelter costs alongside softer goods prices, tempered by firm core services and supercore readings near 3.1%. Elevated headline pressures from energy and gasoline, combined with steady labor-market indicators, reinforce expectations for limited further disinflation before the October 14 print. Market-implied probabilities reflect this narrow range as the base case, with limited scope for sharp deviations absent major revisions or new supply shocks ahead of the next FOMC meeting.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,483End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August 2026 data, showing core CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month against a 0.2% consensus, has anchored Polymarket-implied odds most heavily around 2.3–2.5% for the September release. Traders cite Cleveland Fed nowcasts near 2.39% and ongoing moderation in shelter costs alongside softer goods prices, tempered by firm core services and supercore readings near 3.1%. Elevated headline pressures from energy and gasoline, combined with steady labor-market indicators, reinforce expectations for limited further disinflation before the October 14 print. Market-implied probabilities reflect this narrow range as the base case, with limited scope for sharp deviations absent major revisions or new supply shocks ahead of the next FOMC meeting.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$3,483End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 data, showing core CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month against a 0.2% consensus, has anchored Polymarket-implied odds most heavily around 2.3–2.5% for the September release. Traders cite Cleveland Fed nowcasts near 2.39% and ongoing moderation in shelter costs alongside softer goods prices, tempered by firm core services and supercore readings near 3.1%. Elevated headline pressures from energy and gasoline, combined with steady labor-market indicators, reinforce expectations for limited further disinflation before the October 14 print. Market-implied probabilities reflect this narrow range as the base case, with limited scope for sharp deviations absent major revisions or new supply shocks ahead of the next FOMC meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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