Recent moderation in Mexico’s headline inflation, with the annual rate easing to 3.26% in August 2026 from 3.12% in July amid softer non-core components, underpins trader positioning in the 3.50–3.99% and 4.00–4.49% buckets. Core inflation remains stickier near 3.9%, reflecting persistent services pressures, while Banco de México forecasts and private-sector surveys point to a 2026 year-end outcome near 4.0–4.2% before convergence to the 3% target in 2027. Close probabilities between the two leading ranges reflect uncertainty over external risks—including U.S. trade policy shifts, energy prices, and potential supply shocks—versus the disinflation momentum from subdued goods prices and contained wage growth. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on whether these dynamics sustain the recent downtrend through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.50% to 3.99% 41.4%
4.00% to 4.49% 37%
3.00% to 3.49% 9.7%
4.50% to 4.99% 8%
$69,776 Vol.
$69,776 Vol.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
4%
2.50% to 2.99%
5%
3.00% to 3.49%
10%
3.50% to 3.99%
41%
4.00% to 4.49%
37%
4.50% to 4.99%
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
4%
5.50%+
1%
3.50% to 3.99% 41.4%
4.00% to 4.49% 37%
3.00% to 3.49% 9.7%
4.50% to 4.99% 8%
$69,776 Vol.
$69,776 Vol.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
$1,265 Vol.
4%
2.50% to 2.99%
$4,965 Vol.
5%
3.00% to 3.49%
$29,209 Vol.
10%
3.50% to 3.99%
$5,559 Vol.
41%
4.00% to 4.49%
$14,705 Vol.
37%
4.50% to 4.99%
$5,050 Vol.
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
$2,651 Vol.
4%
5.50%+
$6,373 Vol.
1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent moderation in Mexico’s headline inflation, with the annual rate easing to 3.26% in August 2026 from 3.12% in July amid softer non-core components, underpins trader positioning in the 3.50–3.99% and 4.00–4.49% buckets. Core inflation remains stickier near 3.9%, reflecting persistent services pressures, while Banco de México forecasts and private-sector surveys point to a 2026 year-end outcome near 4.0–4.2% before convergence to the 3% target in 2027. Close probabilities between the two leading ranges reflect uncertainty over external risks—including U.S. trade policy shifts, energy prices, and potential supply shocks—versus the disinflation momentum from subdued goods prices and contained wage growth. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on whether these dynamics sustain the recent downtrend through year-end.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$69,776End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent moderation in Mexico’s headline inflation, with the annual rate easing to 3.26% in August 2026 from 3.12% in July amid softer non-core components, underpins trader positioning in the 3.50–3.99% and 4.00–4.49% buckets. Core inflation remains stickier near 3.9%, reflecting persistent services pressures, while Banco de México forecasts and private-sector surveys point to a 2026 year-end outcome near 4.0–4.2% before convergence to the 3% target in 2027. Close probabilities between the two leading ranges reflect uncertainty over external risks—including U.S. trade policy shifts, energy prices, and potential supply shocks—versus the disinflation momentum from subdued goods prices and contained wage growth. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on whether these dynamics sustain the recent downtrend through year-end.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$69,776End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent moderation in Mexico’s headline inflation, with the annual rate easing to 3.26% in August 2026 from 3.12% in July amid softer non-core components, underpins trader positioning in the 3.50–3.99% and 4.00–4.49% buckets. Core inflation remains stickier near 3.9%, reflecting persistent services pressures, while Banco de México forecasts and private-sector surveys point to a 2026 year-end outcome near 4.0–4.2% before convergence to the 3% target in 2027. Close probabilities between the two leading ranges reflect uncertainty over external risks—including U.S. trade policy shifts, energy prices, and potential supply shocks—versus the disinflation momentum from subdued goods prices and contained wage growth. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on whether these dynamics sustain the recent downtrend through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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