Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the November 2026 special election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat, which runs through January 2029, reflecting the state’s sustained Republican tilt and her advantages as the appointed incumbent. Moody secured the GOP nomination with nearly 80 percent of the primary vote after Governor Ron DeSantis appointed her in early 2025 to fill Marco Rubio’s vacancy; she benefits from strong party infrastructure, endorsements including from President Trump, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $11 million raised against roughly $1 million for Democrat Angie Nixon. Nixon’s August 18 primary upset over Alex Vindman positioned a more progressive candidate in a state where Republicans have won recent statewide races by double digits. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Likely Republican, aligning with trader consensus around 91 percent for Moody. A recent grand jury report on a Medicaid settlement has drawn attacks from Nixon, though it has not yet altered polling or market positioning. Potential shifts could stem from intensified scrutiny of that controversy, unexpected turnout patterns, or late national developments before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$108,180 Vol.
$108,180 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
92%
Angie Nixon (D)
8%
$108,180 Vol.
$108,180 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
$52,848 Vol.
92%
Angie Nixon (D)
$55,332 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the November 2026 special election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat, which runs through January 2029, reflecting the state’s sustained Republican tilt and her advantages as the appointed incumbent. Moody secured the GOP nomination with nearly 80 percent of the primary vote after Governor Ron DeSantis appointed her in early 2025 to fill Marco Rubio’s vacancy; she benefits from strong party infrastructure, endorsements including from President Trump, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $11 million raised against roughly $1 million for Democrat Angie Nixon. Nixon’s August 18 primary upset over Alex Vindman positioned a more progressive candidate in a state where Republicans have won recent statewide races by double digits. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Likely Republican, aligning with trader consensus around 91 percent for Moody. A recent grand jury report on a Medicaid settlement has drawn attacks from Nixon, though it has not yet altered polling or market positioning. Potential shifts could stem from intensified scrutiny of that controversy, unexpected turnout patterns, or late national developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$108,180Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the November 2026 special election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat, which runs through January 2029, reflecting the state’s sustained Republican tilt and her advantages as the appointed incumbent. Moody secured the GOP nomination with nearly 80 percent of the primary vote after Governor Ron DeSantis appointed her in early 2025 to fill Marco Rubio’s vacancy; she benefits from strong party infrastructure, endorsements including from President Trump, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $11 million raised against roughly $1 million for Democrat Angie Nixon. Nixon’s August 18 primary upset over Alex Vindman positioned a more progressive candidate in a state where Republicans have won recent statewide races by double digits. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Likely Republican, aligning with trader consensus around 91 percent for Moody. A recent grand jury report on a Medicaid settlement has drawn attacks from Nixon, though it has not yet altered polling or market positioning. Potential shifts could stem from intensified scrutiny of that controversy, unexpected turnout patterns, or late national developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$108,180Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the November 2026 special election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat, which runs through January 2029, reflecting the state’s sustained Republican tilt and her advantages as the appointed incumbent. Moody secured the GOP nomination with nearly 80 percent of the primary vote after Governor Ron DeSantis appointed her in early 2025 to fill Marco Rubio’s vacancy; she benefits from strong party infrastructure, endorsements including from President Trump, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $11 million raised against roughly $1 million for Democrat Angie Nixon. Nixon’s August 18 primary upset over Alex Vindman positioned a more progressive candidate in a state where Republicans have won recent statewide races by double digits. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Likely Republican, aligning with trader consensus around 91 percent for Moody. A recent grand jury report on a Medicaid settlement has drawn attacks from Nixon, though it has not yet altered polling or market positioning. Potential shifts could stem from intensified scrutiny of that controversy, unexpected turnout patterns, or late national developments before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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