Mary Gay Scanlon maintains a commanding lead in the Pennsylvania 5th congressional district race due to the seat’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent prior election margins exceeding 30 points. As the incumbent since 2018, Scanlon advanced unopposed through the May 2026 Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Nicholas Manganaro also faced no primary opposition and trails significantly in fundraising. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, though late-cycle national shifts, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or major campaign developments before the November 3 general election could still alter the outcome in theory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-05 House Election Winner
PA-05 House Election Winner
$37,067 Vol.
$37,067 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mary Gay Scanlon (D)
98%
Nicholas Manganaro (R)
1%
$37,067 Vol.
$37,067 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mary Gay Scanlon (D)
$12,557 Vol.
98%
Nicholas Manganaro (R)
$24,511 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mary Gay Scanlon maintains a commanding lead in the Pennsylvania 5th congressional district race due to the seat’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent prior election margins exceeding 30 points. As the incumbent since 2018, Scanlon advanced unopposed through the May 2026 Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Nicholas Manganaro also faced no primary opposition and trails significantly in fundraising. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, though late-cycle national shifts, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or major campaign developments before the November 3 general election could still alter the outcome in theory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$37,067End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mary Gay Scanlon maintains a commanding lead in the Pennsylvania 5th congressional district race due to the seat’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent prior election margins exceeding 30 points. As the incumbent since 2018, Scanlon advanced unopposed through the May 2026 Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Nicholas Manganaro also faced no primary opposition and trails significantly in fundraising. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, though late-cycle national shifts, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or major campaign developments before the November 3 general election could still alter the outcome in theory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$37,067End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mary Gay Scanlon maintains a commanding lead in the Pennsylvania 5th congressional district race due to the seat’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent prior election margins exceeding 30 points. As the incumbent since 2018, Scanlon advanced unopposed through the May 2026 Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Nicholas Manganaro also faced no primary opposition and trails significantly in fundraising. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, though late-cycle national shifts, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or major campaign developments before the November 3 general election could still alter the outcome in theory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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