Mike Bost's commanding position in the Illinois 12th congressional district reflects the seat's strong Republican lean, with a partisan voting index around R+22 and Donald Trump carrying the area by roughly 43 points in 2024. The five-term incumbent advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary and has consistently won general elections with margins exceeding 70 percent, supported by substantial campaign resources exceeding $1 million in recent filings. Challenger Julie Fortier, an Air Force veteran and research microbiologist, secured the Democratic nomination without opposition but trails sharply in fundraising and lacks notable endorsements or polling momentum. Race ratings from multiple outlets classify the contest as safe or solid Republican. A late scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could theoretically alter the trajectory before November 3, though such factors have not materialized in this cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-12 House Election Winner
IL-12 House Election Winner
$25,106 Vol.
$25,106 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mike Bost (R)
97%
Julie Fortier (D)
3%
$25,106 Vol.
$25,106 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mike Bost (R)
$13,994 Vol.
97%
Julie Fortier (D)
$11,112 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Bost's commanding position in the Illinois 12th congressional district reflects the seat's strong Republican lean, with a partisan voting index around R+22 and Donald Trump carrying the area by roughly 43 points in 2024. The five-term incumbent advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary and has consistently won general elections with margins exceeding 70 percent, supported by substantial campaign resources exceeding $1 million in recent filings. Challenger Julie Fortier, an Air Force veteran and research microbiologist, secured the Democratic nomination without opposition but trails sharply in fundraising and lacks notable endorsements or polling momentum. Race ratings from multiple outlets classify the contest as safe or solid Republican. A late scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could theoretically alter the trajectory before November 3, though such factors have not materialized in this cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$25,106End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Bost's commanding position in the Illinois 12th congressional district reflects the seat's strong Republican lean, with a partisan voting index around R+22 and Donald Trump carrying the area by roughly 43 points in 2024. The five-term incumbent advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary and has consistently won general elections with margins exceeding 70 percent, supported by substantial campaign resources exceeding $1 million in recent filings. Challenger Julie Fortier, an Air Force veteran and research microbiologist, secured the Democratic nomination without opposition but trails sharply in fundraising and lacks notable endorsements or polling momentum. Race ratings from multiple outlets classify the contest as safe or solid Republican. A late scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could theoretically alter the trajectory before November 3, though such factors have not materialized in this cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,106End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mike Bost's commanding position in the Illinois 12th congressional district reflects the seat's strong Republican lean, with a partisan voting index around R+22 and Donald Trump carrying the area by roughly 43 points in 2024. The five-term incumbent advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary and has consistently won general elections with margins exceeding 70 percent, supported by substantial campaign resources exceeding $1 million in recent filings. Challenger Julie Fortier, an Air Force veteran and research microbiologist, secured the Democratic nomination without opposition but trails sharply in fundraising and lacks notable endorsements or polling momentum. Race ratings from multiple outlets classify the contest as safe or solid Republican. A late scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could theoretically alter the trajectory before November 3, though such factors have not materialized in this cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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