NATO allies have not faced an armed attack meeting the Article 5 threshold since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, and recent U.S. intelligence assessments describe any potential Russian probes—such as limited incursions, drone strikes, or hybrid actions against the Baltics or Poland—as calibrated to test resolve without guaranteeing collective invocation. NATO leaders reaffirmed their "ironclad commitment" to collective defense at the July 2026 Ankara summit, while U.S. warnings delivered via CIA Director Ratcliffe's August Moscow visit and ongoing eastern-flank deterrence measures have so far prevented escalation. With the Russia-Ukraine conflict continuing without spillover that would clearly activate the clause, traders assign a 92.8% probability that Article 5 remains uninvoked before 2027.