Iran’s nuclear program remains heavily constrained following U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 that damaged key enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, leaving facilities largely inoperable and stockpiles of roughly 400–450 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium buried or inaccessible. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire framework calling for IAEA-supervised downblending and verification, yet follow-on talks have stalled without a final agreement, and Tehran continues to limit inspector access to bombed locations. Iranian officials have publicly denied any intent to pursue weapons while halting enrichment activities, and available evidence shows no active weaponization or test preparations in the short window before 2027. Hardline commentary in Iran has grown more vocal about deterrence needs, but it has not translated into official policy shifts or accelerated timelines. These factors underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
6% chance
$251,499 Vol.
$251,499 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$251,499 Vol.
$251,499 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear program remains heavily constrained following U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 that damaged key enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, leaving facilities largely inoperable and stockpiles of roughly 400–450 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium buried or inaccessible. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire framework calling for IAEA-supervised downblending and verification, yet follow-on talks have stalled without a final agreement, and Tehran continues to limit inspector access to bombed locations. Iranian officials have publicly denied any intent to pursue weapons while halting enrichment activities, and available evidence shows no active weaponization or test preparations in the short window before 2027. Hardline commentary in Iran has grown more vocal about deterrence needs, but it has not translated into official policy shifts or accelerated timelines. These factors underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$251,499End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear program remains heavily constrained following U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 that damaged key enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, leaving facilities largely inoperable and stockpiles of roughly 400–450 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium buried or inaccessible. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire framework calling for IAEA-supervised downblending and verification, yet follow-on talks have stalled without a final agreement, and Tehran continues to limit inspector access to bombed locations. Iranian officials have publicly denied any intent to pursue weapons while halting enrichment activities, and available evidence shows no active weaponization or test preparations in the short window before 2027. Hardline commentary in Iran has grown more vocal about deterrence needs, but it has not translated into official policy shifts or accelerated timelines. These factors underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$251,499End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s nuclear program remains heavily constrained following U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 that damaged key enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, leaving facilities largely inoperable and stockpiles of roughly 400–450 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium buried or inaccessible. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire framework calling for IAEA-supervised downblending and verification, yet follow-on talks have stalled without a final agreement, and Tehran continues to limit inspector access to bombed locations. Iranian officials have publicly denied any intent to pursue weapons while halting enrichment activities, and available evidence shows no active weaponization or test preparations in the short window before 2027. Hardline commentary in Iran has grown more vocal about deterrence needs, but it has not translated into official policy shifts or accelerated timelines. These factors underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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