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icon for Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Politics·Middle East

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

icon for Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Politics·Middle East

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$1,663,136 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,663,136 Vol.

Polymarket

Somaliland

$117,077 Vol.

10%

Kuwait

$75,659 Vol.

9%

Lebanon

$76,955 Vol.

8%

Saudi Arabia

$347,996 Vol.

8%

Syria

$164,512 Vol.

7%

Egypt

$7,413 Vol.

6%

Jordan

$9,994 Vol.

6%

Qatar

$8,800 Vol.

6%

Azerbaijan

$175,747 Vol.

5%

Oman

$182,170 Vol.

5%

Pakistan

$9,051 Vol.

3%

Turkey

$487,763 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Recent signals highlight Kuwait as a potential near-term candidate amid shifting Gulf security dynamics.** Israel's ambassador to the UAE indicated in mid-September 2026 that another country, possibly Kuwait, could join the accords within four to six months, citing changed regional perceptions following Iranian threats. Kuwait's emir holds final authority over foreign policy despite parliamentary opposition to normalization. Broader momentum includes Morocco's September 2026 upgrade to full embassies and expanded flights with Israel, building on its 2020 accession, plus ongoing U.S. diplomatic pressure. Saudi Arabia faces explicit U.S. linkage of a civilian nuclear agreement to normalization, though Riyadh continues to condition progress on a credible Palestinian pathway. Other prospects such as Oman, Qatar, or post-conflict Lebanon and Syria remain more distant, with trader focus centering on Gulf states responsive to shared Iran-related threats and U.S. incentives before the 2027 deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,663,136
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Recent signals highlight Kuwait as a potential near-term candidate amid shifting Gulf security dynamics.** Israel's ambassador to the UAE indicated in mid-September 2026 that another country, possibly Kuwait, could join the accords within four to six months, citing changed regional perceptions following Iranian threats. Kuwait's emir holds final authority over foreign policy despite parliamentary opposition to normalization. Broader momentum includes Morocco's September 2026 upgrade to full embassies and expanded flights with Israel, building on its 2020 accession, plus ongoing U.S. diplomatic pressure. Saudi Arabia faces explicit U.S. linkage of a civilian nuclear agreement to normalization, though Riyadh continues to condition progress on a credible Palestinian pathway. Other prospects such as Oman, Qatar, or post-conflict Lebanon and Syria remain more distant, with trader focus centering on Gulf states responsive to shared Iran-related threats and U.S. incentives before the 2027 deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,663,136
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Somaliland" at 10%, followed by "Kuwait" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?" has generated $1.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?" is "Somaliland" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kuwait" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.