New York’s 24th Congressional District carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index and ranks as the state’s most Republican-leaning seat, delivering consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent statewide races. Incumbent Claudia Tenney benefits from this structural advantage, her established name recognition after multiple terms, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.4 million raised with over $1 million in reserves. Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman, a veteran and former VA employee who won her June primary, has emphasized affordability and local economic pressures, yet faces limited resources and an uphill path in a district where Republican performance has historically exceeded statewide trends. A scheduled October debate offers one potential catalyst for momentum shifts, though the district’s partisan baseline and Tenney’s incumbency continue to anchor trader consensus on her strong position ahead of the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-24 House Election Winner
NY-24 House Election Winner
$20,577 Vol.
$20,577 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Claudia Tenney (R)
93%
Alissa Ellman (D)
9%
$20,577 Vol.
$20,577 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Claudia Tenney (R)
$10,938 Vol.
93%
Alissa Ellman (D)
$9,639 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 24th Congressional District carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index and ranks as the state’s most Republican-leaning seat, delivering consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent statewide races. Incumbent Claudia Tenney benefits from this structural advantage, her established name recognition after multiple terms, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.4 million raised with over $1 million in reserves. Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman, a veteran and former VA employee who won her June primary, has emphasized affordability and local economic pressures, yet faces limited resources and an uphill path in a district where Republican performance has historically exceeded statewide trends. A scheduled October debate offers one potential catalyst for momentum shifts, though the district’s partisan baseline and Tenney’s incumbency continue to anchor trader consensus on her strong position ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$20,577End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 24th Congressional District carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index and ranks as the state’s most Republican-leaning seat, delivering consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent statewide races. Incumbent Claudia Tenney benefits from this structural advantage, her established name recognition after multiple terms, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.4 million raised with over $1 million in reserves. Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman, a veteran and former VA employee who won her June primary, has emphasized affordability and local economic pressures, yet faces limited resources and an uphill path in a district where Republican performance has historically exceeded statewide trends. A scheduled October debate offers one potential catalyst for momentum shifts, though the district’s partisan baseline and Tenney’s incumbency continue to anchor trader consensus on her strong position ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,577End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 24th Congressional District carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index and ranks as the state’s most Republican-leaning seat, delivering consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent statewide races. Incumbent Claudia Tenney benefits from this structural advantage, her established name recognition after multiple terms, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.4 million raised with over $1 million in reserves. Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman, a veteran and former VA employee who won her June primary, has emphasized affordability and local economic pressures, yet faces limited resources and an uphill path in a district where Republican performance has historically exceeded statewide trends. A scheduled October debate offers one potential catalyst for momentum shifts, though the district’s partisan baseline and Tenney’s incumbency continue to anchor trader consensus on her strong position ahead of the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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