Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in New York’s 26th congressional district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+11 where he won reelection by more than 30 points in 2024. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls area and Kennedy’s substantial fundraising edge. Republican nominee Dennis Hannon, who launched his campaign in April and advanced unopposed after the June primaries were canceled, has not generated measurable momentum or polling support. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, though late-cycle developments such as unexpected national shifts, candidate health issues, or major scandals could still alter the outcome in a low-probability scenario.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-26 House Election Winner
NY-26 House Election Winner
$26,636 Vol.
$26,636 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
4%
$26,636 Vol.
$26,636 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,443 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$12,193 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in New York’s 26th congressional district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+11 where he won reelection by more than 30 points in 2024. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls area and Kennedy’s substantial fundraising edge. Republican nominee Dennis Hannon, who launched his campaign in April and advanced unopposed after the June primaries were canceled, has not generated measurable momentum or polling support. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, though late-cycle developments such as unexpected national shifts, candidate health issues, or major scandals could still alter the outcome in a low-probability scenario.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$26,636End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in New York’s 26th congressional district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+11 where he won reelection by more than 30 points in 2024. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls area and Kennedy’s substantial fundraising edge. Republican nominee Dennis Hannon, who launched his campaign in April and advanced unopposed after the June primaries were canceled, has not generated measurable momentum or polling support. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, though late-cycle developments such as unexpected national shifts, candidate health issues, or major scandals could still alter the outcome in a low-probability scenario.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,636End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in New York’s 26th congressional district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+11 where he won reelection by more than 30 points in 2024. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls area and Kennedy’s substantial fundraising edge. Republican nominee Dennis Hannon, who launched his campaign in April and advanced unopposed after the June primaries were canceled, has not generated measurable momentum or polling support. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, though late-cycle developments such as unexpected national shifts, candidate health issues, or major scandals could still alter the outcome in a low-probability scenario.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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