Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle holds a structurally advantaged position in New York’s 25th congressional district, anchored in the Rochester area with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting Morelle’s 2024 margin above 60 percent, his comfortable primary victory in June, and the limited profile of Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for the Democratic Party incorporates these fundamentals along with the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments. A Republican victory would require either an unprecedented national environment or late-breaking developments such as a serious scandal or health event involving the incumbent that significantly alters local dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-25 House Election Winner
NY-25 House Election Winner
$33,106 Vol.
$33,106 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$33,106 Vol.
$33,106 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$22,752 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$10,354 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle holds a structurally advantaged position in New York’s 25th congressional district, anchored in the Rochester area with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting Morelle’s 2024 margin above 60 percent, his comfortable primary victory in June, and the limited profile of Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for the Democratic Party incorporates these fundamentals along with the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments. A Republican victory would require either an unprecedented national environment or late-breaking developments such as a serious scandal or health event involving the incumbent that significantly alters local dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$33,106End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle holds a structurally advantaged position in New York’s 25th congressional district, anchored in the Rochester area with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting Morelle’s 2024 margin above 60 percent, his comfortable primary victory in June, and the limited profile of Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for the Democratic Party incorporates these fundamentals along with the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments. A Republican victory would require either an unprecedented national environment or late-breaking developments such as a serious scandal or health event involving the incumbent that significantly alters local dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,106End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle holds a structurally advantaged position in New York’s 25th congressional district, anchored in the Rochester area with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting Morelle’s 2024 margin above 60 percent, his comfortable primary victory in June, and the limited profile of Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for the Democratic Party incorporates these fundamentals along with the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments. A Republican victory would require either an unprecedented national environment or late-breaking developments such as a serious scandal or health event involving the incumbent that significantly alters local dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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