Alibaba's Qwen3 series models, particularly qwen3.8-max, have driven overwhelming trader consensus at 97% implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard. Their consistent high rankings stem from strong results on competition-style math problems and human preference votes, positioning the lab behind Anthropic's dominant Claude lineup but ahead of most competitors like Google, Meta, and OpenAI. This reflects Alibaba's focused advances in large language model reasoning capabilities amid a competitive field where top labs release iterative updates frequently. Resolution hinges on final August 31 standings, with potential shifts possible from late model releases or vote surges that could elevate another lab's best entry into the top three.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlibaba 97.0%
Google <1%
Bytedance <1%
Mistral <1%
$72,581 Vol.
$72,581 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Alibaba
97%
1%
Bytedance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meta
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Alibaba 97.0%
Google <1%
Bytedance <1%
Mistral <1%
$72,581 Vol.
$72,581 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Alibaba
$23,116 Vol.
97%
$15,457 Vol.
1%
Bytedance
$1,582 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$904 Vol.
<1%
Anthropic
$909 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$3,204 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$8,500 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$1,308 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,579 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,386 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$3,116 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$3,509 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$578 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,152 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$730 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$790 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$579 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,059 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,372 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$751 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba's Qwen3 series models, particularly qwen3.8-max, have driven overwhelming trader consensus at 97% implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard. Their consistent high rankings stem from strong results on competition-style math problems and human preference votes, positioning the lab behind Anthropic's dominant Claude lineup but ahead of most competitors like Google, Meta, and OpenAI. This reflects Alibaba's focused advances in large language model reasoning capabilities amid a competitive field where top labs release iterative updates frequently. Resolution hinges on final August 31 standings, with potential shifts possible from late model releases or vote surges that could elevate another lab's best entry into the top three.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ET
Volume
$72,581End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba's Qwen3 series models, particularly qwen3.8-max, have driven overwhelming trader consensus at 97% implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard. Their consistent high rankings stem from strong results on competition-style math problems and human preference votes, positioning the lab behind Anthropic's dominant Claude lineup but ahead of most competitors like Google, Meta, and OpenAI. This reflects Alibaba's focused advances in large language model reasoning capabilities amid a competitive field where top labs release iterative updates frequently. Resolution hinges on final August 31 standings, with potential shifts possible from late model releases or vote surges that could elevate another lab's best entry into the top three.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$72,581End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alibaba's Qwen3 series models, particularly qwen3.8-max, have driven overwhelming trader consensus at 97% implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard. Their consistent high rankings stem from strong results on competition-style math problems and human preference votes, positioning the lab behind Anthropic's dominant Claude lineup but ahead of most competitors like Google, Meta, and OpenAI. This reflects Alibaba's focused advances in large language model reasoning capabilities amid a competitive field where top labs release iterative updates frequently. Resolution hinges on final August 31 standings, with potential shifts possible from late model releases or vote surges that could elevate another lab's best entry into the top three.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions