Republican incumbent John Carter secured the GOP nomination in March 2026 with nearly 60 percent of the primary vote in Texas’s 31st congressional district, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. The district carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index, anchored in Williamson County exurbs north of Austin and extending to military communities near Fort Hood, and all major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Democrat Justin Early advanced from his primary but faces structural headwinds in a constituency that supported Republican presidential and Senate candidates by double-digit margins in 2024. Trader consensus at 93 percent for the Republican nominee reflects this combination of incumbency advantage, favorable partisan baseline, and absence of recent polling or campaign developments indicating a competitive contest. Late-cycle developments such as health concerns for the 84-year-old Carter or an unforeseen national political shift remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-31 House Election Winner
TX-31 House Election Winner
$45,379 Vol.
$45,379 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$45,379 Vol.
$45,379 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$24,918 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$20,461 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent John Carter secured the GOP nomination in March 2026 with nearly 60 percent of the primary vote in Texas’s 31st congressional district, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. The district carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index, anchored in Williamson County exurbs north of Austin and extending to military communities near Fort Hood, and all major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Democrat Justin Early advanced from his primary but faces structural headwinds in a constituency that supported Republican presidential and Senate candidates by double-digit margins in 2024. Trader consensus at 93 percent for the Republican nominee reflects this combination of incumbency advantage, favorable partisan baseline, and absence of recent polling or campaign developments indicating a competitive contest. Late-cycle developments such as health concerns for the 84-year-old Carter or an unforeseen national political shift remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$45,379End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent John Carter secured the GOP nomination in March 2026 with nearly 60 percent of the primary vote in Texas’s 31st congressional district, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. The district carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index, anchored in Williamson County exurbs north of Austin and extending to military communities near Fort Hood, and all major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Democrat Justin Early advanced from his primary but faces structural headwinds in a constituency that supported Republican presidential and Senate candidates by double-digit margins in 2024. Trader consensus at 93 percent for the Republican nominee reflects this combination of incumbency advantage, favorable partisan baseline, and absence of recent polling or campaign developments indicating a competitive contest. Late-cycle developments such as health concerns for the 84-year-old Carter or an unforeseen national political shift remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$45,379End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent John Carter secured the GOP nomination in March 2026 with nearly 60 percent of the primary vote in Texas’s 31st congressional district, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. The district carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index, anchored in Williamson County exurbs north of Austin and extending to military communities near Fort Hood, and all major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Democrat Justin Early advanced from his primary but faces structural headwinds in a constituency that supported Republican presidential and Senate candidates by double-digit margins in 2024. Trader consensus at 93 percent for the Republican nominee reflects this combination of incumbency advantage, favorable partisan baseline, and absence of recent polling or campaign developments indicating a competitive contest. Late-cycle developments such as health concerns for the 84-year-old Carter or an unforeseen national political shift remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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