Redistricting shifted Texas's 32nd congressional district toward a stronger Republican tilt by incorporating additional conservative suburban and rural territory north and east of Dallas, creating an open seat after the prior Democratic incumbent relocated to another district. Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough, an attorney who secured the nomination following a crowded primary and withdrawal by a rival, holds fundraising and endorsement advantages that align with the district's R+8 partisan voter index. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios, a Richardson city council member, advanced from his primary but faces structural headwinds in the general election. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, producing the current trader consensus that favors the Republican outcome at 80 percent. No major late-cycle developments have altered these dynamics in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-32 House Election Winner
TX-32 House Election Winner
$30,642 Vol.
$30,642 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
80%
Democratic Party
19%
$30,642 Vol.
$30,642 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$27,439 Vol.
80%
Democratic Party
$3,203 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting shifted Texas's 32nd congressional district toward a stronger Republican tilt by incorporating additional conservative suburban and rural territory north and east of Dallas, creating an open seat after the prior Democratic incumbent relocated to another district. Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough, an attorney who secured the nomination following a crowded primary and withdrawal by a rival, holds fundraising and endorsement advantages that align with the district's R+8 partisan voter index. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios, a Richardson city council member, advanced from his primary but faces structural headwinds in the general election. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, producing the current trader consensus that favors the Republican outcome at 80 percent. No major late-cycle developments have altered these dynamics in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$30,642End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting shifted Texas's 32nd congressional district toward a stronger Republican tilt by incorporating additional conservative suburban and rural territory north and east of Dallas, creating an open seat after the prior Democratic incumbent relocated to another district. Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough, an attorney who secured the nomination following a crowded primary and withdrawal by a rival, holds fundraising and endorsement advantages that align with the district's R+8 partisan voter index. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios, a Richardson city council member, advanced from his primary but faces structural headwinds in the general election. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, producing the current trader consensus that favors the Republican outcome at 80 percent. No major late-cycle developments have altered these dynamics in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$30,642End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting shifted Texas's 32nd congressional district toward a stronger Republican tilt by incorporating additional conservative suburban and rural territory north and east of Dallas, creating an open seat after the prior Democratic incumbent relocated to another district. Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough, an attorney who secured the nomination following a crowded primary and withdrawal by a rival, holds fundraising and endorsement advantages that align with the district's R+8 partisan voter index. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios, a Richardson city council member, advanced from his primary but faces structural headwinds in the general election. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, producing the current trader consensus that favors the Republican outcome at 80 percent. No major late-cycle developments have altered these dynamics in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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