Anthropic holds an 88.5% implied probability because its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models currently occupy the top ranks on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard, driven by strong human preference votes on competition-style problems requiring chain-of-thought reasoning. Recent Claude releases have delivered measurable gains in step-by-step mathematical explanations, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5 series and Google’s Gemini variants on this crowdsourced benchmark. With the September 30 resolution approaching, the short timeframe limits opportunities for rivals to close the gap absent a major new model launch or leaderboard shift, though Google’s Gemini 3.7 flash variants have narrowed some margins in preliminary results. Traders view Anthropic’s dominance as reflecting sustained technical edges in large language model reasoning rather than temporary volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 89%
OpenAI 10%
Google 3.0%
Z.ai <1%
$40,408 Vol.
$40,408 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
89%
OpenAI
10%
3%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meta
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 89%
OpenAI 10%
Google 3.0%
Z.ai <1%
$40,408 Vol.
$40,408 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$10,482 Vol.
89%
OpenAI
$13,927 Vol.
10%
$3,826 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$1,831 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$527 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,333 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$642 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,234 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,067 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$469 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$499 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$565 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$458 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$466 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$450 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$449 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$459 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$609 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$518 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$599 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds an 88.5% implied probability because its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models currently occupy the top ranks on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard, driven by strong human preference votes on competition-style problems requiring chain-of-thought reasoning. Recent Claude releases have delivered measurable gains in step-by-step mathematical explanations, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5 series and Google’s Gemini variants on this crowdsourced benchmark. With the September 30 resolution approaching, the short timeframe limits opportunities for rivals to close the gap absent a major new model launch or leaderboard shift, though Google’s Gemini 3.7 flash variants have narrowed some margins in preliminary results. Traders view Anthropic’s dominance as reflecting sustained technical edges in large language model reasoning rather than temporary volatility.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$40,408End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds an 88.5% implied probability because its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models currently occupy the top ranks on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard, driven by strong human preference votes on competition-style problems requiring chain-of-thought reasoning. Recent Claude releases have delivered measurable gains in step-by-step mathematical explanations, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5 series and Google’s Gemini variants on this crowdsourced benchmark. With the September 30 resolution approaching, the short timeframe limits opportunities for rivals to close the gap absent a major new model launch or leaderboard shift, though Google’s Gemini 3.7 flash variants have narrowed some margins in preliminary results. Traders view Anthropic’s dominance as reflecting sustained technical edges in large language model reasoning rather than temporary volatility.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$40,408End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds an 88.5% implied probability because its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models currently occupy the top ranks on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard, driven by strong human preference votes on competition-style problems requiring chain-of-thought reasoning. Recent Claude releases have delivered measurable gains in step-by-step mathematical explanations, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5 series and Google’s Gemini variants on this crowdsourced benchmark. With the September 30 resolution approaching, the short timeframe limits opportunities for rivals to close the gap absent a major new model launch or leaderboard shift, though Google’s Gemini 3.7 flash variants have narrowed some margins in preliminary results. Traders view Anthropic’s dominance as reflecting sustained technical edges in large language model reasoning rather than temporary volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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