Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th district toward Democrats, creating an open seat after longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa retired. This structural change underpins the 88.5% Democratic implied probability in the market, as the new boundaries favor the party in a November 3 general election. San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert advanced from the June 2 top-two primary to face San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who secured Republican support including an endorsement from President Trump. A late August SurveyUSA poll showed von Wilpert narrowly ahead at 45% to Desmond's 42%, within the margin of error, while Democratic registration edges and fundraising patterns reinforce trader assessments of a Democratic advantage despite the race's competitiveness.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-48 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-48 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$32,439 Vol.
$32,439 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
89%
Parti républicain
11%
$32,439 Vol.
$32,439 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$17,221 Vol.
89%
Parti républicain
$15,218 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th district toward Democrats, creating an open seat after longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa retired. This structural change underpins the 88.5% Democratic implied probability in the market, as the new boundaries favor the party in a November 3 general election. San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert advanced from the June 2 top-two primary to face San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who secured Republican support including an endorsement from President Trump. A late August SurveyUSA poll showed von Wilpert narrowly ahead at 45% to Desmond's 42%, within the margin of error, while Democratic registration edges and fundraising patterns reinforce trader assessments of a Democratic advantage despite the race's competitiveness.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$32,439Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th district toward Democrats, creating an open seat after longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa retired. This structural change underpins the 88.5% Democratic implied probability in the market, as the new boundaries favor the party in a November 3 general election. San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert advanced from the June 2 top-two primary to face San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who secured Republican support including an endorsement from President Trump. A late August SurveyUSA poll showed von Wilpert narrowly ahead at 45% to Desmond's 42%, within the margin of error, while Democratic registration edges and fundraising patterns reinforce trader assessments of a Democratic advantage despite the race's competitiveness.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,439Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th district toward Democrats, creating an open seat after longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa retired. This structural change underpins the 88.5% Democratic implied probability in the market, as the new boundaries favor the party in a November 3 general election. San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert advanced from the June 2 top-two primary to face San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who secured Republican support including an endorsement from President Trump. A late August SurveyUSA poll showed von Wilpert narrowly ahead at 45% to Desmond's 42%, within the margin of error, while Democratic registration edges and fundraising patterns reinforce trader assessments of a Democratic advantage despite the race's competitiveness.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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