The ECB’s ongoing tightening cycle amid elevated inflation underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate cut. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy prices higher, pushing August 2026 headline inflation to 3.3%—its highest level since 2023—while the deposit facility rate stands at 2.25% following the June 25-basis-point hike. Eurosystem projections show average inflation of 3.0% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027, with core measures also above target. Markets fully price a further quarter-point increase at the September 10 meeting and anticipate the policy rate peaking near 2.50% through year-end. A swift de-escalation in energy markets or sharper growth slowdown could reopen easing discussions, though current data-dependent signals point to restrictive policy persisting into 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
7% probabilità
$31,875 Vol.
$31,875 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
7% probabilità
$31,875 Vol.
$31,875 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB’s ongoing tightening cycle amid elevated inflation underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate cut. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy prices higher, pushing August 2026 headline inflation to 3.3%—its highest level since 2023—while the deposit facility rate stands at 2.25% following the June 25-basis-point hike. Eurosystem projections show average inflation of 3.0% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027, with core measures also above target. Markets fully price a further quarter-point increase at the September 10 meeting and anticipate the policy rate peaking near 2.50% through year-end. A swift de-escalation in energy markets or sharper growth slowdown could reopen easing discussions, though current data-dependent signals point to restrictive policy persisting into 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$31,875Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB’s ongoing tightening cycle amid elevated inflation underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate cut. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy prices higher, pushing August 2026 headline inflation to 3.3%—its highest level since 2023—while the deposit facility rate stands at 2.25% following the June 25-basis-point hike. Eurosystem projections show average inflation of 3.0% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027, with core measures also above target. Markets fully price a further quarter-point increase at the September 10 meeting and anticipate the policy rate peaking near 2.50% through year-end. A swift de-escalation in energy markets or sharper growth slowdown could reopen easing discussions, though current data-dependent signals point to restrictive policy persisting into 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,875Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The ECB’s ongoing tightening cycle amid elevated inflation underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate cut. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy prices higher, pushing August 2026 headline inflation to 3.3%—its highest level since 2023—while the deposit facility rate stands at 2.25% following the June 25-basis-point hike. Eurosystem projections show average inflation of 3.0% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027, with core measures also above target. Markets fully price a further quarter-point increase at the September 10 meeting and anticipate the policy rate peaking near 2.50% through year-end. A swift de-escalation in energy markets or sharper growth slowdown could reopen easing discussions, though current data-dependent signals point to restrictive policy persisting into 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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