Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor of Sergipe seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in recent polling averages ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, with Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) as the main challenger. Multiple late-August and early-September surveys, including those from Quaest, IFP, Real Time Big Data, and TWS, show Fábio at 40-46% in stimulated scenarios against Valmir’s 24-37%, reflecting advantages from his record on employment growth, infrastructure projects, and education initiatives. The market’s pricing aligns with this consolidation of support for the sitting governor, while lower probabilities for other registered candidates such as Ricardo Marques, Emanuel Cacho, and Taty Cristina de Jesus track their single-digit or sub-2% poll shares. No major late-breaking events have altered the primary dynamic in the final weeks before voting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoFábio 90%
Valmir de Francisquinho 10%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$19,769 Vol.
$19,769 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Fábio
90%
Valmir de Francisquinho
10%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
<1%
Emanuel Cacho
<1%
Dott. Helton
<1%
Ricardo Marques
<1%
Fábio 90%
Valmir de Francisquinho 10%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$19,769 Vol.
$19,769 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Fábio
$15,658 Vol.
90%
Valmir de Francisquinho
$1,715 Vol.
10%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
$637 Vol.
<1%
Emanuel Cacho
$618 Vol.
<1%
Dott. Helton
$697 Vol.
<1%
Ricardo Marques
$443 Vol.
<1%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor of Sergipe seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in recent polling averages ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, with Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) as the main challenger. Multiple late-August and early-September surveys, including those from Quaest, IFP, Real Time Big Data, and TWS, show Fábio at 40-46% in stimulated scenarios against Valmir’s 24-37%, reflecting advantages from his record on employment growth, infrastructure projects, and education initiatives. The market’s pricing aligns with this consolidation of support for the sitting governor, while lower probabilities for other registered candidates such as Ricardo Marques, Emanuel Cacho, and Taty Cristina de Jesus track their single-digit or sub-2% poll shares. No major late-breaking events have altered the primary dynamic in the final weeks before voting.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$19,769Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor of Sergipe seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in recent polling averages ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, with Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) as the main challenger. Multiple late-August and early-September surveys, including those from Quaest, IFP, Real Time Big Data, and TWS, show Fábio at 40-46% in stimulated scenarios against Valmir’s 24-37%, reflecting advantages from his record on employment growth, infrastructure projects, and education initiatives. The market’s pricing aligns with this consolidation of support for the sitting governor, while lower probabilities for other registered candidates such as Ricardo Marques, Emanuel Cacho, and Taty Cristina de Jesus track their single-digit or sub-2% poll shares. No major late-breaking events have altered the primary dynamic in the final weeks before voting.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$19,769Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor of Sergipe seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in recent polling averages ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, with Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) as the main challenger. Multiple late-August and early-September surveys, including those from Quaest, IFP, Real Time Big Data, and TWS, show Fábio at 40-46% in stimulated scenarios against Valmir’s 24-37%, reflecting advantages from his record on employment growth, infrastructure projects, and education initiatives. The market’s pricing aligns with this consolidation of support for the sitting governor, while lower probabilities for other registered candidates such as Ricardo Marques, Emanuel Cacho, and Taty Cristina de Jesus track their single-digit or sub-2% poll shares. No major late-breaking events have altered the primary dynamic in the final weeks before voting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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