**Strong containment measures and limited international transmission sustain the 96% market-implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026.** The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has produced over 6,000 confirmed cases and nearly 3,000 deaths as of late August, with rapid geographic expansion across multiple provinces and a case fatality ratio near 48%. However, official CDC and WHO data show no sustained chains of transmission outside Africa, only isolated imported cases in Europe that were quickly isolated, and Uganda declaring its smaller outbreak over. Enhanced surveillance, contact tracing reaching 84% coverage, and border screening keep global exportation risk low. A realistic scenario that could alter odds would involve major lapses in response allowing community spread in additional countries with onward transmission.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% 確率
$713,640 Vol.
$713,640 Vol.
2026/12/31
4% 確率
$713,640 Vol.
$713,640 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong containment measures and limited international transmission sustain the 96% market-implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026.** The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has produced over 6,000 confirmed cases and nearly 3,000 deaths as of late August, with rapid geographic expansion across multiple provinces and a case fatality ratio near 48%. However, official CDC and WHO data show no sustained chains of transmission outside Africa, only isolated imported cases in Europe that were quickly isolated, and Uganda declaring its smaller outbreak over. Enhanced surveillance, contact tracing reaching 84% coverage, and border screening keep global exportation risk low. A realistic scenario that could alter odds would involve major lapses in response allowing community spread in additional countries with onward transmission.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
音量
$713,640終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong containment measures and limited international transmission sustain the 96% market-implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026.** The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has produced over 6,000 confirmed cases and nearly 3,000 deaths as of late August, with rapid geographic expansion across multiple provinces and a case fatality ratio near 48%. However, official CDC and WHO data show no sustained chains of transmission outside Africa, only isolated imported cases in Europe that were quickly isolated, and Uganda declaring its smaller outbreak over. Enhanced surveillance, contact tracing reaching 84% coverage, and border screening keep global exportation risk low. A realistic scenario that could alter odds would involve major lapses in response allowing community spread in additional countries with onward transmission.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$713,640終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Strong containment measures and limited international transmission sustain the 96% market-implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026.** The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has produced over 6,000 confirmed cases and nearly 3,000 deaths as of late August, with rapid geographic expansion across multiple provinces and a case fatality ratio near 48%. However, official CDC and WHO data show no sustained chains of transmission outside Africa, only isolated imported cases in Europe that were quickly isolated, and Uganda declaring its smaller outbreak over. Enhanced surveillance, contact tracing reaching 84% coverage, and border screening keep global exportation risk low. A realistic scenario that could alter odds would involve major lapses in response allowing community spread in additional countries with onward transmission.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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