Elevated inflation pressures from energy price shocks tied to Middle East tensions have driven the ECB's hawkish stance, with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% following a June 2026 hike and markets pricing near-certainty of a September increase to 2.5%. Staff projections show 2026 headline inflation averaging 3.0% and core at 2.5%, prompting expectations of rates holding or rising further through year-end rather than easing. This underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against any 2026 cuts, reflecting trader consensus backed by real capital on persistent upside risks. A swift geopolitical de-escalation or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier policy reversal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
6% 確率
$32,634 Vol.
$32,634 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
6% 確率
$32,634 Vol.
$32,634 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation pressures from energy price shocks tied to Middle East tensions have driven the ECB's hawkish stance, with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% following a June 2026 hike and markets pricing near-certainty of a September increase to 2.5%. Staff projections show 2026 headline inflation averaging 3.0% and core at 2.5%, prompting expectations of rates holding or rising further through year-end rather than easing. This underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against any 2026 cuts, reflecting trader consensus backed by real capital on persistent upside risks. A swift geopolitical de-escalation or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier policy reversal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
音量
$32,634終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation pressures from energy price shocks tied to Middle East tensions have driven the ECB's hawkish stance, with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% following a June 2026 hike and markets pricing near-certainty of a September increase to 2.5%. Staff projections show 2026 headline inflation averaging 3.0% and core at 2.5%, prompting expectations of rates holding or rising further through year-end rather than easing. This underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against any 2026 cuts, reflecting trader consensus backed by real capital on persistent upside risks. A swift geopolitical de-escalation or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier policy reversal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$32,634終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation pressures from energy price shocks tied to Middle East tensions have driven the ECB's hawkish stance, with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% following a June 2026 hike and markets pricing near-certainty of a September increase to 2.5%. Staff projections show 2026 headline inflation averaging 3.0% and core at 2.5%, prompting expectations of rates holding or rising further through year-end rather than easing. This underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against any 2026 cuts, reflecting trader consensus backed by real capital on persistent upside risks. A swift geopolitical de-escalation or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier policy reversal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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