The primary driver of current Polymarket odds favoring 3.0–3.1% 2026 world GDP growth is the global economy’s observed resilience to the Middle East conflict’s energy price shock, which has pushed oil higher since early 2026. The IMF maintained its 3.0% forecast in September, citing cushions from reserves, fuel switching, and AI-related investment offsetting weaker trade and inflation pressures, while the World Bank’s June projection of 2.5% reflects steeper downside from sustained disruptions. With probabilities tightly clustered, traders appear to price in a contained conflict trajectory and modest monetary policy responses rather than severe stagflation or recession scenarios. Key swing factors include winter energy demand, any escalation in shipping or commodity markets, and upcoming IMF and central bank updates that could shift implied growth paths.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano2026 World GDP Growth
2026 World GDP Growth
3.1% 36.8%
3.0% 29.7%
≤2.9% 17.3%
3.2% 11.5%
$32,502 Wol.
$32,502 Wol.
Jan 14, 2027
≤2.9%
17%
3.0%
30%
3.1%
37%
3.2%
12%
3.3%
3%
3.4%
4%
3.5%
2%
3.6%
3%
3.7%+
1%
3.1% 36.8%
3.0% 29.7%
≤2.9% 17.3%
3.2% 11.5%
$32,502 Wol.
$32,502 Wol.
Jan 14, 2027
≤2.9%
$6,304 Wol.
17%
3.0%
$5,339 Wol.
30%
3.1%
$4,396 Wol.
37%
3.2%
$2,317 Wol.
12%
3.3%
$4,033 Wol.
3%
3.4%
$4,552 Wol.
4%
3.5%
$3,589 Wol.
2%
3.6%
$912 Wol.
3%
3.7%+
$1,060 Wol.
1%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The primary driver of current Polymarket odds favoring 3.0–3.1% 2026 world GDP growth is the global economy’s observed resilience to the Middle East conflict’s energy price shock, which has pushed oil higher since early 2026. The IMF maintained its 3.0% forecast in September, citing cushions from reserves, fuel switching, and AI-related investment offsetting weaker trade and inflation pressures, while the World Bank’s June projection of 2.5% reflects steeper downside from sustained disruptions. With probabilities tightly clustered, traders appear to price in a contained conflict trajectory and modest monetary policy responses rather than severe stagflation or recession scenarios. Key swing factors include winter energy demand, any escalation in shipping or commodity markets, and upcoming IMF and central bank updates that could shift implied growth paths.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Wolumen
$32,502Data zakończenia
Jan 15, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The primary driver of current Polymarket odds favoring 3.0–3.1% 2026 world GDP growth is the global economy’s observed resilience to the Middle East conflict’s energy price shock, which has pushed oil higher since early 2026. The IMF maintained its 3.0% forecast in September, citing cushions from reserves, fuel switching, and AI-related investment offsetting weaker trade and inflation pressures, while the World Bank’s June projection of 2.5% reflects steeper downside from sustained disruptions. With probabilities tightly clustered, traders appear to price in a contained conflict trajectory and modest monetary policy responses rather than severe stagflation or recession scenarios. Key swing factors include winter energy demand, any escalation in shipping or commodity markets, and upcoming IMF and central bank updates that could shift implied growth paths.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Wolumen
$32,502Data zakończenia
Jan 15, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...The primary driver of current Polymarket odds favoring 3.0–3.1% 2026 world GDP growth is the global economy’s observed resilience to the Middle East conflict’s energy price shock, which has pushed oil higher since early 2026. The IMF maintained its 3.0% forecast in September, citing cushions from reserves, fuel switching, and AI-related investment offsetting weaker trade and inflation pressures, while the World Bank’s June projection of 2.5% reflects steeper downside from sustained disruptions. With probabilities tightly clustered, traders appear to price in a contained conflict trajectory and modest monetary policy responses rather than severe stagflation or recession scenarios. Key swing factors include winter energy demand, any escalation in shipping or commodity markets, and upcoming IMF and central bank updates that could shift implied growth paths.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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