The redrawn boundaries under California's Proposition 50 have shifted CA-01 toward Democratic-leaning territory by incorporating more urban and coastal areas while removing conservative strongholds, establishing the primary driver behind trader consensus favoring Mike McGuire. McGuire, a former state Senate leader with deep regional ties, advanced from the June primary alongside incumbent James Gallagher, who secured the special election on prior lines. Gallagher's Republican base remains concentrated in rural counties, yet the new map compresses those advantages. Potential shifts could arise from unusually high Republican turnout, major economic developments, or late campaign developments before the November general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-01 House Election Winner
CA-01 House Election Winner
$35,032 Wol.
$35,032 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mike McGuire (D)
97%
James Gallagher (R)
2%
$35,032 Wol.
$35,032 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mike McGuire (D)
$26,310 Wol.
97%
James Gallagher (R)
$8,722 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The redrawn boundaries under California's Proposition 50 have shifted CA-01 toward Democratic-leaning territory by incorporating more urban and coastal areas while removing conservative strongholds, establishing the primary driver behind trader consensus favoring Mike McGuire. McGuire, a former state Senate leader with deep regional ties, advanced from the June primary alongside incumbent James Gallagher, who secured the special election on prior lines. Gallagher's Republican base remains concentrated in rural counties, yet the new map compresses those advantages. Potential shifts could arise from unusually high Republican turnout, major economic developments, or late campaign developments before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Wolumen
$35,032Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The redrawn boundaries under California's Proposition 50 have shifted CA-01 toward Democratic-leaning territory by incorporating more urban and coastal areas while removing conservative strongholds, establishing the primary driver behind trader consensus favoring Mike McGuire. McGuire, a former state Senate leader with deep regional ties, advanced from the June primary alongside incumbent James Gallagher, who secured the special election on prior lines. Gallagher's Republican base remains concentrated in rural counties, yet the new map compresses those advantages. Potential shifts could arise from unusually high Republican turnout, major economic developments, or late campaign developments before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$35,032Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...The redrawn boundaries under California's Proposition 50 have shifted CA-01 toward Democratic-leaning territory by incorporating more urban and coastal areas while removing conservative strongholds, establishing the primary driver behind trader consensus favoring Mike McGuire. McGuire, a former state Senate leader with deep regional ties, advanced from the June primary alongside incumbent James Gallagher, who secured the special election on prior lines. Gallagher's Republican base remains concentrated in rural counties, yet the new map compresses those advantages. Potential shifts could arise from unusually high Republican turnout, major economic developments, or late campaign developments before the November general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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