Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa holds a commanding position in California's 46th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, driven by the district's consistent Democratic lean, his primary performance of nearly 52 percent, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1 million compared to Republican challenger David Pan's roughly $80,000. Multiple forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with Correa's 63 percent victory in 2024. Trader consensus reflected in the 95 percent probability for Correa aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of major recent disruptions. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Republican turnout, unforeseen campaign developments, or shifts in voter sentiment on local issues such as affordability and immigration in the Orange County-based district.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-46 House Election Winner
CA-46 House Election Winner
$24,224 KL.
$24,224 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Lou Correa (D)
95%
David Pan (R)
6%
$24,224 KL.
$24,224 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Lou Correa (D)
$4,687 KL.
95%
David Pan (R)
$19,536 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa holds a commanding position in California's 46th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, driven by the district's consistent Democratic lean, his primary performance of nearly 52 percent, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1 million compared to Republican challenger David Pan's roughly $80,000. Multiple forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with Correa's 63 percent victory in 2024. Trader consensus reflected in the 95 percent probability for Correa aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of major recent disruptions. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Republican turnout, unforeseen campaign developments, or shifts in voter sentiment on local issues such as affordability and immigration in the Orange County-based district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$24,224Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa holds a commanding position in California's 46th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, driven by the district's consistent Democratic lean, his primary performance of nearly 52 percent, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1 million compared to Republican challenger David Pan's roughly $80,000. Multiple forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with Correa's 63 percent victory in 2024. Trader consensus reflected in the 95 percent probability for Correa aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of major recent disruptions. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Republican turnout, unforeseen campaign developments, or shifts in voter sentiment on local issues such as affordability and immigration in the Orange County-based district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$24,224Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa holds a commanding position in California's 46th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, driven by the district's consistent Democratic lean, his primary performance of nearly 52 percent, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1 million compared to Republican challenger David Pan's roughly $80,000. Multiple forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with Correa's 63 percent victory in 2024. Trader consensus reflected in the 95 percent probability for Correa aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of major recent disruptions. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Republican turnout, unforeseen campaign developments, or shifts in voter sentiment on local issues such as affordability and immigration in the Orange County-based district.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp