California's 1st congressional district underwent significant redistricting through Proposition 50, shifting boundaries to include more Democratic-leaning areas such as portions of Sonoma and Mendocino counties while removing conservative strongholds. This structural change has shaped trader consensus around Democratic state Sen. Mike McGuire's strong position heading into the November 3 general election against Republican incumbent Rep. James Gallagher. McGuire advanced from the June primary alongside Gallagher after consolidating Democratic support, while the special election for the prior term occurred under different lines. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing accounts for the altered electoral math, historical patterns in newly configured seats, and Gallagher's shorter time as the sitting member under the updated map. Factors that could still influence the outcome include turnout differentials, late campaign developments, or shifts in voter sentiment within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$35,032 交易量
$35,032 交易量
2026-11-02
迈克·麦圭尔（民主党）
97%
詹姆斯·加拉格尔（共和党）
2%
$35,032 交易量
$35,032 交易量
2026-11-02
迈克·麦圭尔（民主党）
$26,310 交易量
97%
詹姆斯·加拉格尔（共和党）
$8,722 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 1st congressional district underwent significant redistricting through Proposition 50, shifting boundaries to include more Democratic-leaning areas such as portions of Sonoma and Mendocino counties while removing conservative strongholds. This structural change has shaped trader consensus around Democratic state Sen. Mike McGuire's strong position heading into the November 3 general election against Republican incumbent Rep. James Gallagher. McGuire advanced from the June primary alongside Gallagher after consolidating Democratic support, while the special election for the prior term occurred under different lines. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing accounts for the altered electoral math, historical patterns in newly configured seats, and Gallagher's shorter time as the sitting member under the updated map. Factors that could still influence the outcome include turnout differentials, late campaign developments, or shifts in voter sentiment within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$35,032结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 1st congressional district underwent significant redistricting through Proposition 50, shifting boundaries to include more Democratic-leaning areas such as portions of Sonoma and Mendocino counties while removing conservative strongholds. This structural change has shaped trader consensus around Democratic state Sen. Mike McGuire's strong position heading into the November 3 general election against Republican incumbent Rep. James Gallagher. McGuire advanced from the June primary alongside Gallagher after consolidating Democratic support, while the special election for the prior term occurred under different lines. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing accounts for the altered electoral math, historical patterns in newly configured seats, and Gallagher's shorter time as the sitting member under the updated map. Factors that could still influence the outcome include turnout differentials, late campaign developments, or shifts in voter sentiment within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$35,032结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETCalifornia's 1st congressional district underwent significant redistricting through Proposition 50, shifting boundaries to include more Democratic-leaning areas such as portions of Sonoma and Mendocino counties while removing conservative strongholds. This structural change has shaped trader consensus around Democratic state Sen. Mike McGuire's strong position heading into the November 3 general election against Republican incumbent Rep. James Gallagher. McGuire advanced from the June primary alongside Gallagher after consolidating Democratic support, while the special election for the prior term occurred under different lines. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing accounts for the altered electoral math, historical patterns in newly configured seats, and Gallagher's shorter time as the sitting member under the updated map. Factors that could still influence the outcome include turnout differentials, late campaign developments, or shifts in voter sentiment within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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