Marni von Wilpert holds an 88.5% implied probability in the CA-48 House race because the district’s post-Prop 50 boundaries shifted it toward Democrats by roughly 18 points from its prior Republican lean, creating a 4-point Democratic registration edge in an open seat. Incumbent Darrell Issa’s retirement cleared the path for the June 2 top-two primary, where von Wilpert advanced alongside Jim Desmond despite a crowded Democratic field. A late August SurveyUSA poll showed her at 45% to Desmond’s 42% among likely voters, a statistical tie that nonetheless reflects the structural advantages. Traders view the national midterm environment and localized Democratic targeting as further tilting the contest, though the narrow polling margin and undecided share leave room for late shifts before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$32,439 交易量
$32,439 交易量
2026-11-02
Marni von Wilpert（民主党）
89%
吉姆·德斯蒙德（共和党）
12%
$32,439 交易量
$32,439 交易量
2026-11-02
Marni von Wilpert（民主党）
$17,221 交易量
89%
吉姆·德斯蒙德（共和党）
$15,218 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Marni von Wilpert holds an 88.5% implied probability in the CA-48 House race because the district’s post-Prop 50 boundaries shifted it toward Democrats by roughly 18 points from its prior Republican lean, creating a 4-point Democratic registration edge in an open seat. Incumbent Darrell Issa’s retirement cleared the path for the June 2 top-two primary, where von Wilpert advanced alongside Jim Desmond despite a crowded Democratic field. A late August SurveyUSA poll showed her at 45% to Desmond’s 42% among likely voters, a statistical tie that nonetheless reflects the structural advantages. Traders view the national midterm environment and localized Democratic targeting as further tilting the contest, though the narrow polling margin and undecided share leave room for late shifts before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$32,439结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Marni von Wilpert holds an 88.5% implied probability in the CA-48 House race because the district’s post-Prop 50 boundaries shifted it toward Democrats by roughly 18 points from its prior Republican lean, creating a 4-point Democratic registration edge in an open seat. Incumbent Darrell Issa’s retirement cleared the path for the June 2 top-two primary, where von Wilpert advanced alongside Jim Desmond despite a crowded Democratic field. A late August SurveyUSA poll showed her at 45% to Desmond’s 42% among likely voters, a statistical tie that nonetheless reflects the structural advantages. Traders view the national midterm environment and localized Democratic targeting as further tilting the contest, though the narrow polling margin and undecided share leave room for late shifts before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,439结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETMarni von Wilpert holds an 88.5% implied probability in the CA-48 House race because the district’s post-Prop 50 boundaries shifted it toward Democrats by roughly 18 points from its prior Republican lean, creating a 4-point Democratic registration edge in an open seat. Incumbent Darrell Issa’s retirement cleared the path for the June 2 top-two primary, where von Wilpert advanced alongside Jim Desmond despite a crowded Democratic field. A late August SurveyUSA poll showed her at 45% to Desmond’s 42% among likely voters, a statistical tie that nonetheless reflects the structural advantages. Traders view the national midterm environment and localized Democratic targeting as further tilting the contest, though the narrow polling margin and undecided share leave room for late shifts before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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